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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HDC who wrote (105444)	2/26/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: JRI	Respond to of 176387

Duncan- Thanks for your comments..you know, when I first heard the Compaq downgrades this morning..and earnings cuts...I was a little peeved ("What's next?" he asked)...But after a little thought, I started feeling much better.. BTW- I hold about 4times as much Dell as Compaq.. My real concern coming out of the Dell's last earnings was, is Dell fundamentally slowing as fast as its naysayers are saying, or much more moderately, as Bulls assume (and that last quarter's 38% rev. growth was just the "art not going well" ...TM's words....) And, more importantly, that competitors are not closing the gap (at a decent pace) on the direct model... With today's info, there is some (additional) strong evidence that competitors did not really close the gap on Dell...that their bump was due more to channel stuffing (IBM, and to some extent, Compaq), and seasonality... Given my large weighting in Dell vs. Compaq....I would much rather see some (temporary) industry weakness...and, in return, re-confirm that Dell has maintained its strong industry position...The latter (for my investment position) has much more profound implications...Still, I would have preferred not to see CPQ take the hit it did.... Also, as one poster put....Delayed Feb. launch of Pentium III also contributed to slow Jan. sales for all... One minor concern: Everybody (Analysts, IDC/Dataquest/Cpq/Dell) talked about increased PC sales due to Y2K in first half ...in January, looks like this was not the case..something to look out for, but, indeed, if weakness is isolated to Jan. only (and Feb-April strong)...we could be sitting pretty here... Also, given today's news....80 and change is a very good close...