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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (7099)	2/26/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Donald. FWIW. Saw Favors today. Didn't catch specific #'s, or thoughts on Monday, but he said we go up from here, dow 10,000 +/- <g>, but big drop (as in BIG) end of March. Sees support @ 9100, 8800 and doesn't see it worse than that. However, from 10,000, that's a pretty nice fall. Maybe some one else can add to his comments. Challo

To: donald sew who wrote (7099)	2/27/1999 11:00:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Perhaps there was news of the impending article in Barron's today about Greenspan's reappointment being doubtful. Seems Clinton/Gore are mad with Greenspan for opposing their Social Security "surplus" scheme. They also ran an article about the false government budget "surpluses". They're also not keen on his getting credit for the economy. On the Republican side, they wrote that Bush blames Greenspan's slow response to the economy in 1991 for costing his reelection. Considering that the banks/S&L's were having difficulties and the economy was in recession in 1990-1992, they have a point.

To: donald sew who wrote (7099)	3/1/1999 6:21:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>The INTEREST RATE action was interesting today. The economic news favored further increase in the rates, but the rates pulled back significantly. The Fed is in a big catch here. Higher rates will open a big interest rates gap between USD and the EURO. That could lead to an even stronger Dollar (>1 EURO) and worse trade balance. OTOH there's the tightening labor market (which could have spelled wage pressures and inflation for over a year but hasn't) and the ever surprising GDP figures. How cautious is Greenspan? >>It was really interesting how the DOW sold off about 50 points in the last 5 minutes of the day. Wonder if the futures also sold off? Yes, from 1246 to 1239 and after the close from 1240 to 1235. >> Its interesting that you feel if the SPX trades over 1253 we will head up strong. Is that based on a wave structure. Yes. Here's what I saw Wednesday before the open (2/24) exchange2000.com <quote> .......Minute 1 - 10/8/98 to 11/27 Duration = 35 trading days ; Gain = 269 SPX points. .......Minute 2 - 11/27 to 12/14 .......Minute 3 - 12/14 to 1/8 Duration = 17 trading days ; Gain = 141 SPX points. .......Minute 4 - 1/8 to 2/10 .......Minute 5 - 2/10 to present. Duration Should be 7-9 days to have the same ratio as 3 had to 1 (but it is already 8 days old); Gain should be 74 SPX points (top at 1286) to copy the ratio of wave 3 to wave 1. <end quote> That was the ending diagonal count. The next day the SPX reached a very marginal new high (half a point intraday higher) and sold off. On that post I mistakenly considered the Minute 5 to be an impulse (5 waver). Actually it breaks down like this A - 2/10 open to 2/11 close (has a clear intraday 5 count within). B - 2/12 open to 2/18 morning C - 2/18 morning to 2/24 afternoon. The alternate count (which looks less viable by the day) is exchange2000.com It will get a big reinforcement if we trade over SPX 1253 To summarise : The up move from 10/8 ended for the SPX on 2/24 (On the NDX it already ended 2/1) The NDX big caps are pulling the market lower. The sideways action of the last day and a half suggests more downside. ATG