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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3515)	2/27/1999 11:12:00 AM
From: Trebor	Respond to of 15132

Justa: I did one smart thing this week (and only one). I bought April $140 protective puts on Intel when it hit $137. They've now more than doubled in value and sure took the sting out of Intel's plummet for me. Your conference report helped prompt this decision, for which I thank you. Wish I'd done the same on CPQ, TER and NVLS. I fool around a lot with calls but this is my first venture into puts.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3515)	2/27/1999 7:21:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Justa, I posted my summary of the SEMInvest conference and you will recall the three legs to the stool: (1) DRAM pricing; There is going to be some additional DRAM supply hitting the market in the March and Q2 time frame, which coincides with the historically weak Q2 for semiconductors and PCs, so I think we'll see DRAM prices come down over the next few months. Will the decline be large enough or quick enough to spook the market for semi-equips? That's the question I wish I knew the answer to. (2) PC growth of 14% this year; That sounds doable providing Japan and SEA stay on their current course. Again, something that can't be predicted with great certainty. (3) economic stability. The US economy is too strong if you ask the FED. Are there any more Brazils lurking out there? Is China going to devalue their currency? biz.yahoo.com The bottom line is that there is still a good deal of uncertainty out there, while semi-equipment stocks were discounting a perfect world in '99. I'm surprised this sector didn't correct sooner. That being said, I believe the recovery is genuine, but will not be as robust as most believed before this past week. The two largest consumers of ICs, the US and European market, remain strong. The PC industry is doing well and learned a major lesson last year about channel stuffing. The brightest spots for the IC industry these days are high-bandwith(I should be getting my cable modem within the next month or two :-) and consumer applications. Every consumer electronics product shipping these days comes with an ever increasing IC content. Bob

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (3515)	3/13/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

ALL PLEASE READ: Well, I guess vacation for me is over in more ways than one. I returned to this thread to find it littered with Clinton comments with no market relevance. We should have all learned by now that Clinton comments untied to the markets are an invitation to thread armageddon. This was my ruling long ago and it still stands. So no more of Clinton comments left untied to the markets and loophole seekers from either side will be sanctioned. And I might even ban discussion of Clinton until further notice. You know that seems like a good idea. After all, the market's performance seems to be totally unrelated to the performance of this administration because it is totally powerless as being one half of the gridlock equation. So consider any further discussion of Clinton banned from this thread until further notice. As I have seen violations from both sides, no thread actions will be taken. Give it a rest you guys. Investors don't care about the President or his administration. Why should we at this point? He is totally irrelevant to market performance and that says it all. There are plenty of other places on SI to endlessly pursue the Clinton debate and this is not one of them. Let others waste their time in this debate. Let them post countless posts minute after minute into cyberspace as if it makes any difference. Life is too precious to waste on this topic. Anyone interested in making money here anymore?