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To: H.A.M. who wrote (60181)	2/27/1999 9:07:00 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 61433

'Lucent and Nortel will have to focus inward, rather than outward, for the next 12 to 14 months,'' Dzubeck said Lots of misinformation in this article. During December and January, Nortel announced more than $2 billion in wireless contracts in a 60 day period. That does not sound like they were focusing inward to the exclusion of looking outward. Lucent dominates as an optical maker, but ATM and IP haven't been strong suits. It is not really correct to say LU "dominates" as an optical maker. I believe their market share of DWDM is about 30 percent. I believe Nortel sells more DWDM with OC-192. Ken

To: H.A.M. who wrote (60181)	2/27/1999 10:21:00 AM
From: Techplayer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 61433

Excerpts from a post on the AFCI board regarding data and voice traffice growth... Gang, SBC Communications had a management rep at the Telcomm Conference. She noted a few facts about SBC. First SBC acquired Pacific Bell in 1997, Southern New England Telcomm in 1998, and now trying to merge with Ameritech (Chicago-Upper Midwest Area), and already owned Southwestern Bell (Texas Area). Now in the US alone customer demand for data-oriented applications will drive an explosion in data traffic. Long distance voice traffic in the US will rise from 1.7 billion gigabits in 1994 to 5.0 billion gigabits in 2005 (It's 2.0 gigabits currently).. However data traffic will explode from 0.3 billion gigabits in 1994 to 13.7 billion gigabits in 2005 (It's 0.6 gigabits currently).. Now backing out the part of the lomg distance market that satellites will capture,that still leaves a lot of room for growth in analog, cable (HFC), wireless markets through 2005.....i.e., more equipment will be needed...

To: H.A.M. who wrote (60181)	2/27/1999 11:58:00 AM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 61433

Bar Graph showing Lucent, Cisco & Nortel revenue in IBD article distorts the data I have the print copy of article entitled "Lucent CEO Calls 1999 A Make-Or-Break Year" on page A6 if IBD for Monday, March 1, 1999. The article contains a bar graph showing Lucent, Cisco & Nortel revenue for Q1, Q2, Q3 & Q4 of calendar 98. When you look at the graph, it appears that Lucent and Nortel are growing much faster than Cisco. The graph gives a distorted picture because Lucent and Nortel have their lowest revenue in the first quarter and their revenue increases quarter by quarter with the best revenue in the fourth quarter. Cisco's revenue is much more consistent quarter to quarter. If the graph had shown year to year growth, it would have shown a more realistic picture. Justs goes to show, graphs can be misleading. Ken