The Real Risks Of WAVX Investing...
Just as I and others invested invested in SEEK, buying a vision of what the Web could (and, mostly, HAS) become--recognizing that SEEK had excellent technology (search) and a strong CEO, Harry Motro, with numerous valuable connections and an eye for the value of alliances in the "webbed world"--now I've put some money into WAVX (thanks for the tip, Weby.)
I'm not in a position to assay, technically or technologically, the risks of investing in WAVX. I don't know chips, unless they're served with my favorite salsa. However, I have pretty good sense of the context of this investment, what some would uncharitably call "the atmospherics." And that's what I'm going to focus on.
** This IS a high-risk investment. You could lose it all. Quickly, I might add. And unless you walk around with a browser in your forehead you may not be able to catch the moves (either upward or downward.) Further, this stock, because of its poor fundamentals, is, for the foreseeable future at least, an event-driven investment, i.e., if things play out like some of the forward-looking statements would indicate, we'll be in high cotton. If not, deep doo-doo. It does not offer the metaphysical comfort of an excellent balance sheet to fall back on. (I say "metaphysical comfort" because a strong balance sheet absent a story or good buzz is almost meaningless when it comes stock appreciation.)
** The risk is NOT higher now than it was two or four years ago. To imply otherwise is irresponsible. However, it should be noted, that the share price is trading in a new range. That DOES add risk.
** The chance of reward is, however, significantly better than it has been in the history of the company. The alliances are stronger and more public. They point to some upcoming milestones... such as the HAUP card release, etc. Further, e-commerce as a topic and a reality is ascendant... as are issues of privacy and transaction security. Further, the concept of micropayments seems to, again, be on the rise... thus interest in Compaq's Milicent, etc. And the RB WAVX community has played a huge part in getting the word out... and raising the stock's profile.
** As investors, we are asked to look past the wretched fundamentals and, instead, focus on the potentials. This invites us into the land of charlatans and "pump and dump" schemes. We have every right to be wary here. So, we've got to look hard at senior management and ownership and ask tough questions and review credentials, etc. And, on that score, you'd be hard-pressed NOT to be impressed with Peter Sprague. Then, we've also got to vet their alliances. IBM's been way too quiet... but that doesn't mean anything necessarily. However, H-P, a company renowned for technological innovation, has been VERY PUBLIC with support of EMBASSY and Wave Systems. This vote of confidence is meaningful. Couple this with H-P's new consolidation and focus on Internet and e-commerce products, like WebQoS which is extremely cool, and the endorsement is even more substantive.
** As I've said before, I think some big boys, like Intel, might like to see these guys fail... and then scoop up patents and technologies for a virtual (MP3) song. But, I can't question the tenacity of The Spragues. Were I to, it would be an insult to their 10-year journey toward relevance. (Actually, I think that particular journey is ALMOST complete.) A journey that most would or COULD not have taken.
Just my opinions. Best Regards to all WAVX longs,
c m |
