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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DD™ who wrote (3517)	2/27/1999 1:25:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 15132

Re: "The DJIA would have to fall all the way to 4000 before the first of the three major valuation ratios (Price/Earnings, Price/Book Value, or Price/Dividend) returned to its 70-year average. Meanwhile, the message from OTC growth stocks is no less ominous. Final December figures from the Nasdaq came within a fraction of our projected yearend P/E of 93.5. We estimate that as of February 1, the P/E has moved up near 105." I agree that an average P/E of 100 should be viewed with concern. What was the P/E of the Japanese market in 1989? I think I remember that it was less than 100. Ten years later, those that bought the Japanese market at the top still have a 65% loss. The popular belief in the US market is that making money in stocks is a certainty, as long as one is "in for the long term." How long is "long term," when one can have a 65% loss after 10 years? Best wishes, I2

To: DD™ who wrote (3517)	2/27/1999 3:18:00 PM
From: Boca_PETE	Respond to of 15132

DD: RE:< MONTANA GRIZZLY BEAR SIGHTING > Better to keep your eye on the readings of the four components of Brinker's Timing Model AND constantly ask yourself "are any of the 5 root causes of a bear market now a reality ?" Stack's forecast will turn out to be true at some future time, but when is the question. Will it be late 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2010 ..? BTW last night on Wall Street Week, panelist Julius Westheimer sure wasn't bashful about giving his market outlook. Julius said flat out "I'm a Bear! I expect at least a 2,000 point decline in the DOW !..." Sure am glad I listened to Brinker when he advised listeners during the first surge to the DOW 9600 area to "get asset allocations in line - down to sleeping level". zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz P