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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KY who wrote (28654)	2/27/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: arno	Respond to of 70976

I've been waiting for a pull back. But, my concern for the short term prevented me from jumping in too much on this recent/decent dip. I bought one-third of my position today. My finger was itching was itching, too. So, I scratched it just a little. IMHO, If AMAT goes much lower than this, it will be because the whole market has choked. I like this stock. arno

To: KY who wrote (28654)	2/27/1999 8:18:00 PM
From: Alok Sinha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

If NAS remains weak, I wouldn't be surprised if AMAT sees low 40s. This stock has gone straight up from the lows 30s to 60s based simply on one figure - increased orders in Jan. If you look at their revenues and earnings over the last 8 quarters , on a period to period basis , they are always down or flat. A yar and a half ago the stck ranup to 50s (split adjusted) on the same type of new order hype. Somehow it did not translate into earnings growth further down the line. If this continues, AMAT will always have a P/E that is out of the world (and a lot of promise) - Micron is a similar situation. Look at their recent earnings performance - crappy to say the least. Both are undoubtedly leaders in their segments, but have little pricing power (but institutional investors love thse stocks as it has made hem a lot of money in the past). Predicting where revenues will be in 6 - 12 months is more or les a crapshoot in the tech arena, unless you are a MSFT, CSCO or maybe SUN (recently). Technically these stocks may bounce back some, but if tech outlook weakens we may see prices corresponding to a stock split without the doubling of the shares outstanding. I do believe that day trading (or option trading) can make a fortune in these stocks. I wouldn't hold such fundamentally weak companies (EPS standpoint, not technologilly wise) if someone held a gun to my head. I did come very close to buying AMAT Mar 60 puts last week, but the premiums were exceptionally high so refrained. Did purchase some CSCO Mar 95s and was handsomely rewarded. Regards Alok