Hi Frank, here is an article in IBD MArch 1, 1999 issue which might be of interest:
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Against These Newcomers, Cisco And
Lucent Seem Slow
Date: 3/1/99
Author: Michele Hostetler
An emerging type of networking gear called terabit routers promises to
make today's transmission speedsters resemble old jalopies.
Fast? These routers can download the entire contents of the Library of
Congress in about two minutes.
Compare that with the 60 years it would take today's 56 kilobits-per-
second modems to do the same task, says Ashraf Dahod, chief executive
of NetCore Systems Inc. The Wilmington, Mass., start-up is among those
making terabit routers.
Routers tell data where to go on networks. Terabit routers will tell data
where to go at speeds equal to 1 trillion bits per second. Today's top-line
routers route data as fast as 1 gigabit, a mere 1 billion bits per second.
But terabit routers must prove they can stand up to the intense pounding
demanded of devices at a network's core. That's where the heavy-duty
gear resides for Internet service providers, telephone carriers and other
keepers of large networks.
A group of start-ups is leading the terabit router charge. TRs are the sole
reason these companies exist. Established networkers, such as Cisco
Systems Inc., typically will buy such new technology through an acquisition.
Terabit routers are expected to start hitting the market in the next two
months. On Monday, Avici Systems Inc. in North Billerica, Mass., plans to
announce it will ship its first terabit router in large quantities in the second
quarter.
''Part of the challenge for the terabit router guys is proving that their
equipment will do what they say it will,'' said Chris Nicoll, an analyst at
Current Analysis in Sterling, Va. ''No service provider is going to pick and
choose their terabit router without extensive tests.''
There's no shortage of start-ups eager to cater to ISPs and carriers. Aside
from NetCore and Avici, the privately held terabit start-ups include:
Littleton, Mass.-based Argon Networks Inc.; Mountain View, Calif.-based
Juniper Networks Inc.; Marlborough, Mass.-based Nexabit Networks
Inc.; and Cupertino, Calif.'s Pluris Inc.
And another one or two companies could emerge. ''The last terabit
company hasn't been started yet,'' said Ron Jeffries of Jeffries Research in
Arroyo Grande, Calif.
No one will guess how many companies the terabit router market can
support.
''How many of these boxes are really going to be bought?'' said David
Passmore, an analyst with Sterling, Va.-based NetReference Inc. ''I've
heard everything from $250 million to $600 million over the next couple of
years. That isn't a huge market.''
ISPs and carriers may need few terabit boxes, which start at $250,000 and
rise to several million dollars, Jeffries says. ''You only need so many of
these, at so many locations,'' he said.
Still, the successful makers of the product are likely to get attention from
the big network players, analysts say. Cisco, Northern Telecom Ltd. and
Lucent Technologies Inc. are the most likely suitors.
''1999 will be a major year in shaking out this industry,'' said Surya Panditi,
chief executive of Avici. Nortel owns a 20% equity stake in Avici.
NetCore's Dahod says he's already received several buyout offers. ''We
believe they were premature,'' he said.
The market's also premature, Nicoll says. Terabit routers will help future
networks, not today's, he says.
But the buzz has started.
''By the middle of this year, the market starts to happen,'' Jeffries said. ''By
the end of the year, it's a big deal.''
ISPs and carriers need this high-powered gear because bandwidth needs
and usage on the Internet and other big networks are exploding, Panditi
says. Consumers must be able to download video and audio from the Net
easily.
Terabit routers are designed to handle fiber-optic networks. Glasslike
fiber-optic lines are much faster than today's phone or cable lines. Terabit
routers are better suited for optical networks than existing routers, says
Mukesh Chatter, chief executive of Nexabit.
Fiber optics and dense wavelength division multiplexers, which increase the
number of wavelengths in fiber-optic cable, are the new networks'
plumbing. Terabit routers will be the pumping station, he says.
Terabit routers also represent a technology change for phone carriers.
Terabit routers are packetbased, not circuitbased like traditional voice
gear. Packets are the language of data, which dominates most networks.
The telecom industry is moving to networks based on packet technology to
handle voice, data and video.
And that can only speed the terabit race.
''Over the next few years, we'll find out who the next Cisco will be,'' Panditi
said. ''Now, no one knows.''
(C) Copyright 1999 Investors Business Daily, Inc.
Metadata: CSCO NT LU I/3574 I/4890 E/IBD E/SN1 E/TECH |
