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Strategies & Market Trends : Graham and Doddsville -- Value Investing In The New Era -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: porcupine --''''> who wrote (1378)	2/28/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Respond to of 1722

Porc, >>It's an interesting analogy. But, it doesn't really resolve the quandery that this and similar "the-better-it-looks-the-worse-it-really-is" doomsday scenarios present the researcher. If lack of evidence of a problem is evidence that the problem is in fact worse than ever, what evidence could the researcher ever uncover that would reveal that a supposed problem isn't actually a problem?<< Your points throughout were well taken. However, I don't think it's a matter of "the-better-it-looks-the-worse-it-really-is". Sometimes it really is better. It requires looking at what is going on underneath to produce those results. Greenspan spoke specifically on that issue recently. In that light, it is often clear that there are forces at work that are unsustainable in nature that are providing favorable short term results. I'm not aware of anyone that disagrees that a very overheated economy that comes from credit inflation can manifest itself in a current account deficit. Under a gold standard that excess was checked. Now it can proceed until the excess becomes so large that speculators begin making major bets on its unwinding. It can eventually blow up in a significant way. But this is a many year process. There are lots of things like that. It's a matter of seeing the underlying forces and determining if they are healthy or not. Essentially, sustainable or not. Wayne