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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gary Burton who wrote (38460)	2/27/1999 4:44:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Gary: I am not an E waver, but my general outlook is closer to yours than anyone lede on this thread. Still headed lower, but not long until a major reversal. The recent sharp drop in RIG and the probable break soon of HAL and SLB tells me this bear will soon be over. When investors finally capitualate on the highest quality names, the tide is ready to turn. Sometimes intersting to look at these cycles from a very long-term perspective. One can argue that oil (and the CRB) are now in the final phases of a papa bear market that commenced back in 1981. There have been many sharp rallies over the past 18 years, but the main trend has been down (especially in inflstion-adjusted terms) If this papa bear is indeed in its last phase, then we may soon enter a major commodity bull lasting many years. Just as big cap stocks have risen much more than almost anybody expected a decade ago, so will oil and the CRB in the years ahead. $30 crude and 250 OSX within five years? Would not surpise me at all.