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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: wizzards wine who wrote (14760)	2/28/1999 12:43:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 34811

Preston, Duke60 and Ms. XLooking at your read...I find you to read the charts quite well...However, shorting stocks with RS in X's ...well, just look at the BSL ...KLIC @ 20, INTC @ 97, and AMAT @49. Even with things getting more negative, they may well Bounce back up from the BSL... I noticed in the Investment Business Daily, Friday, 2/25/99, page A21, that the Elec-Semiconductor Equipment makers still had a high rank #5 out of 199. AMAT had a RS of 96, with an accumulation rank of A, and Group Strength of A, and potential EPS of A. This was based on Thursday's data and before the 20 million volume sell off on Friday. However, when comparing back to the 1997 up cycle I noticed that AMAT's sell off was in May, rather than Feb as now, when it reached a DW high price of $72 and sold off to a DW price of $58 or 19.44%. AMAT then resumed its upward movement in June, one month later, moving up in a column of “X's” $16 to $74. Naturally, there is now indication that AMAT will resume the same pattern as it did in 1997 but the similarities so far are almost identical with this up cycle except for one fact. AMAT's movement is almost 3 months earlier. In this AMAT sell off it is down from DW $71 to $56, or 21.127%. With CEO Morgan BTB, Orders, and shipment projections, the 1.10 BTB SEMI #, what looks like stonger BTB numbers in the immediate future and the strong economic conditions, IMO, I can not see how the SEMI Equipment Sector and specifically AMAT can stay down. Tom, would say we will just have to wait and see.<g> AMAT still is above the Bull Support line. I agree with you that it may bounce off the support line if not sooner. It will be interesting to see what happens these next few weeks. Preston, Ms X, and Duke60 what is your take? Just my opinions. Paul