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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (78)	2/27/1999 7:47:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 2103

Monty Lenard: Great link... Regards, LG

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (78)	2/27/1999 10:04:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2103

Thanks Monty; We do see a lot of things alike, I may could critique some of what he says, but doubt I could give as good a picture from scratch. I also doubt; him, me on any one else can say when it will melt down, tath any day business goes no where. We all know there is a lot of risk, and with the triggers lowered that risk has gone up, but none of us know when it will pass some critical point and then not bob back up. Several things he didn't mention that could happen is the Fed is under such pressure that as much as GreenSpam says he hates it, he lets inflation come in as it looks like the lesser of the evils, and it may well be, but inflation once lose could run away. Between a deep depression and inflation, I think the inflation scenario will be the hard choices they may have to make. The global economy seem to dictate now that inflation is the drug of preference and it may be the lesser of the evils when tough times arrive. Print more money and hope it will go away or fix itself. <G> If it does fix itself then every politician and indeed GreenSpam himself will want to take credit for it. If it don't they will all blame the other side and the little guy for not saving or working hard enough. One thing he pointed at was what some derivative defaults could do, Well on the news ( almost whispered ) guess what happened last week ? Some big future buy contracts on wheat and soybeans did just that, they defaulted. I haven't heard much since.. but you can bet it's causing a stir behind the scenes. And the price of wheat took a hit, and they are already under water, & so it goes one default can trigger another. Too much debt from the ground up, how do you handle that. In the more recent past it's been print more money, kill the dollar value and pay the debt off with dollars that are worth less. For some reason the bond market is not indicating that move just yet, unless this recent run up in interest rates is the last gasp for air before they crash, hell I can't tell. It does seem to say the lenders are getting worried about lending more, ha they better be concerned about how they are going to collect what's out now if they crash the system, well I'm sure they are thinking on that as I type. About all you or I can do is keep a close eye on the Head/tail thingy, grab a shirt tail and ride with the current. And hope if it does pass some critical point we know who are friends are. I can't change it so I'm not going to worry too much about it, I'll just hang on to my system of trading until they close the market. I don't want to underestimate how high this market can go, ( no I'm not calling for Dow 12000 ) but you know I don't rule it out, I don't rule out 15000 or more, we just aren't headed that way at this time <G> Jim