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Technology Stocks : Egghead Computer (EGGS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raven McCloud who wrote (6904)	2/27/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Kip518	Respond to of 8307

Raven, if it is your hope to get a few points pop on EGGS maybe TM could do that alone by delivering his crowd. It's possible, but look at the chart. Clearly, EGGS is retracing the same pattern of last summer/fall after its first speculative spike. That time it went from 29 to just below 5, an 83% decline. The current spike started at 40 1/4. An 83% decline would take it to about 7 bucks. You are going to say, "but this time is different!" and, of course, that's right. EGGS now has a fantastic Oracle-based webpage, it's banner ads are spread over more and more sites (what did they pay for the MSN deal anyway?), Orban is running around the country accepted as the analog-retailer turned digital-etailer guru, and with the SPO surely good (whorish?) coverage must come. But internet stocks move on being new (especially just IPOed) and having mo-mo. EGGS doesn't have a new story, they're still just trying to get the old one to work, and whatever mo-mo its had has moved on. Etailing a commodity (software, nerdy computer junk, etc.) is increasingly recognized as impossibly competitive, inherently money-losing, business. EGGS had to go to a SPO because it needs a transfusion. This is not a story to attract Harmon, Benjamin, Meeker or the other hotshot internut analysts who can suck money into stocks like eBay, AMZN, AOL, etc. After the SPO, 4 1/2 million more shares are going to be sloshing around in the market -- that's about a 20% increase in the float! If the secondary goes primarily to retail, then you can count on those folks to bail fast when the broker's promises of quick returns don't work out. I'm not short EGGS at the moment. I covered when it started going quiet before the SPO. If it pops next week, I'll be right back..maybe even long. IMO, EGGS is a trading stock, but nothing more. Kip biz.yahoo.com