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Microcap & Penny Stocks : Globalstar Telecommunications Limited GSAT -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3196)	2/27/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29987

More short argument on yahoo thread Top > Business and Finance > Stocks > Services > Communications Services > GSTRF (Globalstar Telecommun.) Help - Add to My Yahoo! - Sign Out Potential G* Buyer: Facts - Cash Flow Shortage Looms by: DoDoFeaster 4484 of 4486 Note the Anger & Desperation of G-longs. Read their messages and note than none have the facts to dispute my reasoning - These people are purely in love with the technology & concept (which are great), but do not understand the business model. One solid attempt was that of InternetBackbone (#4467) who brings up the correct point that the initial WHOLESALE cost is .47, but expected to drop "below .25/min". The precise figure in G* projections is WHOLESALE .21/min in year 3. Note that WHOLESALE is what they expect to charge their resellers. Their resellers have to mark-up this anywhere from 30-100% to be able to stay in business. Alternatives will offer customers RETAIL prices of .20-.25/minute in the year 2. Potential resellers will see that they can't make good money from G* unless G* drops its WHOLESALE prices to the .10-.15/minute range. G* will take these prices because it will have huge fixed costs and debt service obligations & almost 0 incremental cost so it will stay in business. The competition won't be in all markets - it is true that there are some that G* will have to itself. However, these will be insufficient to generate the projected cash flows. The cash flow shortages will not even allow it to fully service debt - equity holders will be wiped out. We will see G* phones in many places - but the species of birdbrain knows a as G*-longus will never be seen on the face of the Earth again....as extinct as the DoDo... Look at a chart, compare my posts & you will see - I have been 100% correct on the fall & the bounceback before they happened. (I challenge this board's birdbrains to find one post of mine predicting a price movement that didn't occur as I said - For you blind moronic idiots who missed my posts when I covered: you must be evolutionarily-challenged ). The analysts following this stock have been dead wrong. Analysts sell stock; they don't buy it. PM's buy stock and we our homework - the little guy is falling for the hype & I do mean FALLING as the chart will show. If you do decide to get in a bit anyway - remember $18-20 is top of the next range & the stock has been so hammered that it is due to test that again. (Crawling bug - I don't follow Loral so I can't give you an opinion. Sorry. Don't regret your loss - unless you sold two days ago just after I posted that the stock was due for a bounceback.) Posted: Feb 27 1999 6:51PM EST as a reply to: Msg 4483 by dayzed521 Replies: View Replies to this Message

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (3196)	2/28/1999 12:18:00 AM
From: Oliver Schonrock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29987

Maurice I agree that whatever sales channel G* uses has to be efficient and not lumbered with unnecessary margins. "Hyundai, which has a monopoly on service in New Zealand, could take orders via the Web auction system or via a shop of their own with sales people demonstrating handsets which are kept in stock. " Of course they can! But why use a Hyundai Website for NZ only service and then another for Australia and for Thailand and for France etc... I thought you meant for G* to run a GLOBAL website and auction them off from the production line. No room for retailers here! Not even room for the national SP! That would be smart if G* can get away with it with the SPs! But look at what djane posted: "Handset. $750 target price. SPs no markup." [BS at 2/25/99 Bear, Stearns CC notes (888-841-3475)] If the SPs have no markup anyway then the road is cleared for the most efficient, modern, global, free market, sales channel in existence: THE WEB! (Just have to convince BS, :-)) Actually, the SPs get most of the benefit from the G* phones in the developed world, because only a small fraction of calls will be made using the sat-service and the rest in terrestial mode because of price and obstructions. Given this it is reasonable that G* was able to negotiate "no markup" on phones by SPs. In fact some (ie Vodaphone) have chosen to sell them below their cost, in anticipation of the huge marketing benefits they will recieve by offering a phone that can auto-switch to an "everywhere" service provider. Go G* SPs!! Go G!!!!!!!! I bought at above $20. No regrets! my only decision is wether to sell something else to buy more at these prices!! Oliver PS Which parts of the Vodaphone empire did G sign with?