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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105671)	2/27/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: Jackie Ng	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Any opinion for the soft demand in US and Europe? Copy it from Yahoo board, Alert: PC "price war" launch soon by: WinWinWinPick 170209 of 170478 < Just finish reading a artice from nasdaq-amex.com and analysis. Regarding what analysts pointed out that "If one company ends up being the party pooper it affects the whole landscape". Due to the soft PC market both home users and corporate, a "price war" is anticipated. By slashing price, company will try to maintain a better than worst revenue. However, the profit margin will hurt badly. For the one who is seeking for a high-end new PC the buyers will be attracted by the extermely lowest price (price slash make it even cheaper) lower-end PC, than the overall landscape is going to hurt badly. Remember what Michael Porter mentioned in his competitive force model, the leader in the industry can change the rule of the game. Before, competition in the PC market is price-sensitive but still healthy. However, since the leader (CPQ) is facing trouble to build up its revenue, the further action of CPQ will make the overall PC market worst by focusing slashing price. Yes, CPQ can do nothing now except price-cut because the US and Europe market is soft. The demand for PC is less than before. Personal analysis product cycle analysis. The new innovate chip is emerging slower during past 1 -2 years. Lack of new products to support the fast turnround product life cycle, it is hard to extend the cycle period. So old products will sell at lower price and demand for the new prodcut is soft. For example, it does not make big difference between P300 and P400, yes there is a difference but not much when it cost 1000 bucks more. The new PIII announce two years after the PII dispute. PII tooks 1 year+ after Pentium I sold. That is bad sign. Since there is no need for users to upgrade the system, then they will not buy and wait until a "brand new technology" PC developed. Therefore, the sales in the industry will down by hugh. Since all the HYPE is leaving, the support for DELL is weak. It went down from 110 to 80, then from 80 to 87, then to 80, if this is the pattern for DELL and more bad news from the industry or company, then we will tank from the level of 80 now. Unless we can significant of individuals can bring Hype, merit for DELL, otherwise it doesn't look good in short and long term. Yes, I am panic. I don't want to suffer 10 to 20% drop. I will probably buy more puts Mar 70, May 60 to hedge my bet. If not, I will sell all my DELL and buy it at lower price. Reason of buy 70 and 60 puts, if it tank, it is hard. Any comments regarding the article mentioned the soft PC market both in US and Europe. ps. CPQ will down to 30 or lower soon. Definitely. > Can DELL really ignore the industry problems? Jackie

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105671)	2/28/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Chuzz.. Good points...as always about Gateway, and the potential competitive threat... Don't know if you noticed, but Gateway's market cap has bounced up to 11 1/2B....even with the hit computer stocks have taken in the past few weeks... It is not unreasonable to think that Gateway could have a market cap of over 15B...and even 20 Billion by the end of the year... I think this would rule out Compaq, no? They shot their wad on Dec... Hewlett-Packard, it looks like to me, has not been very acquisitive in its history..and culturally, that could be a wierd fit, indeed... IBM would seem to be the most likely acquirer...but is that the best way for them to use 15-20B? Jeez, it seems like some sort of alliance with Dell would produce better ROI, but...not everyone thinks like Dell in these matter (alliances vs. making/buying) After this calender year, Gateway will probably be too expensive for an acquisition to make sense anymore, no? I don't see anyone making a run at Micron..they just don't seem to be very good at what they do....