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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (1331)	2/28/1999 6:02:00 AM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

'What he doesn't say, but could, is if this is happening at a time of monetary easing, then the Fed may have used up its silver bullets." Nonsense. Real rates are incredibly high right now. Inflation of maybe 1-1.5%, the long bond at 5 1/2%. Should be at least a point and half lower, and could be two or even slightly more lower, except perhaps for the "threat" of growth in LDCs and the erstwhile "Tigers". The Fed has plenty of silver bullets left, and if the market goes down to the mid 7000s from here, it will be a scary ride, but not that terrible a thing for the economy or, in the long run, for the market itself.

To: Peter Singleton who wrote (1331)	3/1/1999 12:11:00 PM
From: N	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

Peter, check this out... Message 8083653 I agree...the fed's wiggle room is a little tight, but, hey, seems those bandwidths on the aggregates never seem to trouble too much. Does give one nostalgia for Uncle Miltie's simple k percent rule. Sam...agree about the high real interest rates...the fomc minutes have been touting this is their main policy instrument throughout the year...Actually, by doing nothing (leaving nominal rates unchanged) we have been allowing real rates to remain high... Oh well, 50 billion in reserves vs an 8 trillion dollar economy...the signal is the 'coded message!' Nancy