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Biotech / Medical : Munch-a-Biotech Today -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (222)	2/28/1999 12:16:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3158

another sleepless night, huh Mike? CRGN and GLGC..... we now see very visible signs that VCs are getting ready to push their new investments in second-generation genomics companies. I expect this rising tide to raise many boats, including the companies that are innovative, including CRGN, GLGC and MLNM. MLNM and SEPR had their runs? Well..... MLNM will be selling, IMO, for $200/share within five years and lessee what Jim and Peter have to say about a five year target for SEPR. Remember.... for the core business, INCY and AFFX are not competitors. Peter has a munch portfolio, but it's not refined to his picks..... just his tolerance level for suggestions. Elan buys SIBI at $8? That assumes failure in each program. While I do not consider that to be an improbably scenario, I think that Elan (not a good fit, IMO) would probably either pay $3/share or north of $40/share, and nothing in-between. One can say a lot of things about the SIBI business plan, but one thing that can't be said is that it's low octane. Seattle.... Red Chip teams with Silicon Investor.... techstocks.com only one biotech thus far. I sat down and negotiated deals with Synbiotics when they were a ten employee company with a focus on human therapeutics.... Greg Pfau et al. They were trying to sell Bayer an affinity purification procedure for factor VIII. Geeeeeze, how things have changed.

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (222)	2/28/1999 1:48:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 3158

Mike, It's a pretty hopeless task to pick the very few stocks that actually get munched. There are just to many variables an outside investor doesn't know about. You are dealing with not only the finance/science of both muncher and munchee, but also the personalities, policies and politics at both companies. Why then a munch thread? Most importantly, I think of "munchiness" ("munchableness"?) as one more valuation criterion. If a stock would be worth more to an acquiror than its current market price, that is a significant indication that it is currently undervalued. Secondly, the market is kind of like Hollywood - you usually get a rash of imitations and "wanna-be's." If a couple of some species of biotechs get gobbled, then suddenly the rest of that variety should rise in sympathy. However, I do want to be in position to move very quickly if this should happen, and so talking about munchables ahead of time still makes a lot of sense. Peter