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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j.o. who wrote (7193)	2/28/1999 12:06:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

j.o.: Range bound breakouts are very obvious as they happen. Deciding which way the breakout will go before it happens, has and always will be the trick. And this trick gets harder as the long term Bull Market gasp for last breaths. This Bull has found second, third, fourth, etc. winds. Is there one or more still left in it? Only time will tell... Calling the top has left many a guru sitting on the sidelines in this Bull. I prefer trend following with graduations from short to medium to long with consolidation patterns in between. Many methods on this thread are used...none are easy and none are 100%. Opposing views should always be welcome, as they force stronger due diligence and echo warnings for caution. Always look both ways before you cross the street...<g> BWDIK Regards, LG

To: j.o. who wrote (7193)	2/28/1999 12:10:00 PM
From: Casaubon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I'm trying a different approach. I am taking my money out of non-trending markets, in favor of interest bearing instruments. Until a trend emerges. IMHO trend reversals seem easy to identify. Thus, I will be sidelined until a trend reversal occurs. As I've stated earlier, I believe we are currently in a non-trending market. If this market crashes, I will wait for the light at the end of the tunnel, pick out the trend reversal, and then get back into the market. If the market breaks out of this non-trending pattern to the upside, I will look to get back in (I believe I will be able to differentiate a fake move up from a real growth trend breaking move, with the aid of world market conditions, volume changes and the effects on price action). In the mean time, I have been earning real money in bonds (so what if it's low %, I ain't losing money). I moved out of stocks Jan 4, 1999. As far as I can see, I missed the top by 5% or so. I've locked in >20% gains for the last 5 years. Not bad, considering I didn't know anything! Now that I've learned a lot about FA, TA and investing in general, I think I can do better.

To: j.o. who wrote (7193)	2/28/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 99985

LG pretty much made my case- as did the other reply. We are only speculating that the downtrend will continue, from the technical indications. A break out of the trading range (whichever direction) will serve as a confirmation, or a negation of the indicators. So pick your favorite indicators, and stick with them, if you want to be a technician. If you want to speculate with the indicators- You can put some bets in, but remember that all indicators are fallible. I am not attempting to trade this market here. It is very risky, and capital preservation is my primary objective at the moment. There is a time to take risks and a time to refrain. This is a time to refrain, IMO. If I do speculate- It will likely be shorting on rallies. The rally that took the Dow up to 9600 demonstrated a fairly good reversal indication, The 'Naked pants up the Pole', on Monday. <g> It took a couple of days to really take affect, but ultimately proved to be accurate. iqc.com This is the type of thing I will look for as short entry points.