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Biotech / Medical : Pharmos (PARS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Huth who wrote (566)	2/28/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: David Israel-Rosen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1386

Richard: Net Present Value Should determine current Price. The Net Present Value of PARS is 5x current Price (all your points considered). Based on your description and analysis YOU SHOULD SELL your stock...Without going through the PARS STORY Again (You should the OLD PARS POSTS). THE RESL ISSUE - PARS SUFFERS FROM THE MOST INCOMPETENT PR THERE IS.... I can tell you that while you advocate Open Eye Policy with regard to PARS you COMPLETELY Ignore any possible POSITIVE...Which leads me to conclude that IF MY ANALYSIS was the same I WILL NOT own the Stock... All the Best David

To: Richard Huth who wrote (566)	2/28/1999 6:36:00 PM
From: yosi s	Respond to of 1386

"Against most opinions, HU-211 is not a blockbuster drug. A blockbuster starts with sales of $1 billion," If we make an assumption. That HU 211 does confers brain protection. Which was seen in multiple animal studies, including US ARMY. and in Phase 2. of Current trials. HU 211 will find indication in the following situation. STROKE 1.Possible MS and other inflamatory processes. 2.Adjunct in any extensive brain surgery. 3.Protection from brain injury during open heart operation if extracorporal circulation is used. 4. In observed cardiac arrest that has the potential for anoxic brain damage. 5.Intractable seizures. Then you have Inflamatory bowl disease. See study in animal model. This molecule because of it mechanisme of action will find many indication. So the potential is there. I can go on and on. But we first got to get a partner to finance phase 3, and get approval. If Bob Cook is right and in year 2000 Pharmos can be cash flow neutral to postive, there will be no need for further dilution. And any cash that will came in will speed up R&D. By the way this company has a very low burn rate. And was able to bring in research forward at a fraction of the cost of other biotechs....

To: Richard Huth who wrote (566)	3/1/1999 7:22:00 PM
From: Omer Shvili	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1386

Richard, I agree with almost everything you said. I agree that there aren't that many reasons for an investor to buy PARS at this time. I also agree that blaming CC for the stock price is stupid (there aren't major sellers, but there are no buyers at all). In fact, I'm quite sure that CC has shorted the stock against its preferred long ago, and so while they did pressure the stock lower in the past, they're no major influence right now. I also agree that the ophthalmic line doesn't excite most people. I think it's a great product line, which will be able to support a $6 stock by 2001 (with $0.25 - $0.30 EPS), even if HU211 fails on PIII, so I am excited. It's no blockbuster, but it gets the job done, and if I get a +200% return in the coming 2 years, I'll be happy. However, I completely disagree with the notion that HU211 is not a potential blockbuster. It has blockbuster written all over it. TBI market size: There are about 400K cases of severe head trauma every year in the US. HU211 should be priced at least at $2000 per treatment (similar to price of stroke drug, sold by Merck if I remember correctly, which isn't quite effective btw). Some people even think such a drug could be priced at north of $3000. However, even at $2000, we're talking about $800 million, and not $500 as you stated. That's on the verge of the billion dollar mark, which was the old criteria for blockbuster status. However, as modern science advances, and we get drugs for more specific conditions, the criteria for blockbuster drugs is also changing. There has been a lot of talk about this in the pharma world. We won't see too many drugs with potential sales of billions in the US alone, those days are over (unless someone finds a cure for aids). People are now talking about drugs with potential sales of $500 million and higher, as blockbusters. That's only the US market, and the European market is almost the same size and so is Japan. So HU211 (TBI) has a huge potential market. Big enough to attract several major pharmas who are now talking with PARS. And for a company with a market cap of less than $60 million, having such a drug is huge. I agree with the rest of your points regarding a partner. Discussions with big pharma takes time, and I also don't expect to hear something anytime soon. I believe an agreement could be reached by June, and not April-May which I thought could happen until a few months ago. Such discussions take a lot of time, and unlike some think, the wait has nothing to do with the third cohort of PII. No potential partner is waiting for those results. Omer