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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (28668)	2/28/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian/all, more positive comments on AMAT. This one from Wall Street Week. Jeff << Colonial's Stoeckle Recommends Tech Companies on 'Rukeyser' Owings Mills, Maryland, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Technology and financial companies were among those recommended by Colonial U.S. Growth and Income Fund manager Mark Stoeckle on Public Broadcasting System's ''Wall Street Week With Louis Rukeyser.'' ''The outlook for those companies still continues to be very good,'' Stoeckle said, referring in particular to Texas Instruments Inc. and Applied Materials Inc. Shares of both companies fell this week on concern over slowing personal- computer sales. Applied Materials, the No. 1 chip-equipment maker, fell 12 5/8, or 18 percent, to 55 5/8 over the past two days as investors felt that slowing sales would mean less demand for computer chips. Texas Instruments fell 15 3/4, or 15 percent, to 89 3/16 from a 52-week high of 104 15/16 reached on Feb. 24. Stoeckle, who invests in large companies, said those companies continue to be good investments because many have reduced costs and focused on their areas of strength. He said he hasn't invested in Dell Computer Corp. because the expectations for its stock performance are too high. Stoeckle said he continues to like financial-services companies because of their growth and because they ''really have the ability to control expenses.'' Among the panelists, Maceo Sloan said he sees value in America Online Inc. and Virtual Technology Corp. The chairman and chief executive of Sloan Financial Group Inc. also likes Chase Manhattan Corp. and First Union Corp. >>

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (28668)	2/28/1999 5:34:00 PM
From: Jeffrey D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian/all, Bloomberg story on AMAT's stock price decline. It is interesting to note that even with the recent drop AMAT has risen 30% this year. Jeff << Applied Materials, Chip-Equipment Maker Shares Fall for 2nd Day Applied Materials, Chip-Equipment Maker Shares Fall for 2nd Day Santa Clara, California, Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The shares of Applied Materials Inc. and other chip-equipment makers tumbled for a second day on concern that slowing personal-computer sales will lead semiconductor companies to buy less of their products. Applied, the No. 1 chip-equipment maker, fell 8 1/2 to 55 5/8 in trading of 21.6 million shares, making it the fourth-most active U.S. stock. The shares have dropped 18 percent in the past two days. Lam Research Corp. fell 4 1/8 to 29 9/16. Chip-equipment makers rely on chipmakers for orders and stand to sell less if companies such as Compaq Computer Corp., the biggest PC maker, buy fewer microprocessors. Compaq fell 14 percent on concern that its first-quarter sales and profit won't meet forecasts. ''If there's a slowdown in PC unit sales growth, it means the recovery (in the chip-equipment industry) will be slower than expected,'' said John Pitzer, a Prudential Securities Inc. analyst. ''People have been taking as a given that demand was robust.'' Novellus Systems Inc. fell 6 to 59 1/16, while Teradyne Inc., the biggest maker of chip-testing gear, fell 8 to 48. Kulicke & Soffa, a maker of chip-assembly tools, fell 3 1/2 to 25 3/8. This week's decline comes after chip-equipment shares have surged this year on signs that orders were rebounding from a yearlong slump that dragged into the fourth quarter. Applied, based in Santa Clara, California, rose to a record last week after the company's fiscal first-quarter profit doubled expectations and it said earnings this quarter also would double estimates. It's still up 30 percent since the beginning of the year. >>

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (28668)	3/1/1999 2:09:00 AM
From: Alok Sinha	Respond to of 70976

DRAM is certainly lot more commodity-like than semi-conductor equipment. I was referring to Micron's ability to be ahead of the curve in terms of being the lowest cost producer, and being the first to migrate to higher capacity chips. The similarity between AMAT and MU currently is that both have had extremely poor EPS over the last two years - order growth is certainly a good sign, however cancellations also tend to be high in the chip business. I am trying to compile a chart that compares quartely volume of new orders to revenues (earnings) 12 months down for AMAT, if I can get the data. My gut feeling is that the correlation is not very strong. "Could you enlighten us as to what the EPS for these will be? I could always use some easy money:-)" The EPS for MSF, CSCO and SUN (given past record of earnings consistency) will be a few cents around expectations. However, I don't know if there is easy money to be made from earnings predictability. The downside risk,in my opinion,is less for these stocks. In any case, chances of MSFT, CSCO, SUN disappointing is substantially less than that for AMAT, MU, HWP, MOT, AMD, etc. "The reason why the stock has moved up is that people are expecting EPS at a run rate of $.50 per Q toward the end of '99" I agree with you about the rationale for the run-up. I also believe the easy money has been made. Given the valuation and risks, I just don't believe that AMAT provides a reasonable level return vs. te risk. That was all I was trying to say. Regards Alok