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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8174)	2/28/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Bosco	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

G'day all - Ramsey, certainly, China is trying NOT to follow the former USSR's footstep. In that sense, she has indeed been overboard in cracking down on minorities; however, I don't know if the US policies are based on the "basher of the year" strategy. I will grant that it is uneven and mysterious - and downright political in posturing at times. However, it seems to me that there are indeed serious issues. As a matter of opinion, the current administration is giving a lot of leeway, much like the Mexico situation, in the hope of exertion some influence on China [I will get to that later.] Don't take my words for it <g>, it seems that other people hold that view too pbs.org To continue my POV, I don't know how the US policies can cause China to go the way of the former USSR, when you say We all know US foreign policy is based on "basher of the year" strategy. Why China is chosen again this year is puzzling? Is the intent to drive China down as the same path as the former USSR? I doubted if the current Chinese regime can be suckered the same way Gorbachev did. Did we not learn how naive our ideas are and how totally inapplicable to countries like China? Do we really want to send 1.2 billion Chinese down the same path as the Russians and the former soviet block countries? since, as the participants in the Newshour pointed out, there is precious little the US can do. Like it or not, China has more trump cards than the US. However, IMHO, so long as both sides refrain from escalation of rhetorics, China will give a couple of goodwill gestures [not enough to effect any real change, mind you] and the Clinton Administration can pretend to have done due diligence and get Congress off its back [I don't think partisan politics will get the Administration out unless it provides something - anything.] best, Bosco

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8174)	2/28/1999 5:03:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 9980

Ramsey, I agree with your assessment that Asia II is around the corner, and frankly, this assumption is a cornerstone in the turnips' "Spring Relapse", I think that the Nikkei is artificially supported, to once more cover banks's weak balance sheets with inflated securities. Once March 31 will be out, I believe that the Nikkei could easily drop more than 800 points very rapidly and that may start another round of Asian securities weakness, IMHO. As for China, it seems to go the other way than the Soviet block. the cracks started to appear in the Soviet block when we (erroneously, I believe) supported the reformation of the Baltic states, that crack coupled with a very mismanaged transition to "free economy" (resulting in the "Cader" taking possession of the "means of production"). Whomever think that one can turn such a big country on a dime, is simply mistaken. If we attempt the same trick with China, and G-d forbid, we succeed, we run the risk of plunging the whole world into a massive depression, IMHO. Zeev Zeev

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8174)	3/1/1999 8:03:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Re: Ramsey's View of NY Times Article Ramsey, Even though I may not agree with your views entirely, I just wanted to say I thought it was an excellent post. I wish I could comment more but don't have the time today. Only wanted to thank you for your comments. Thanks, MikeM(From Florida)

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (8174)	3/8/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: don pagach	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Thread, Imagine that Japan does get its act together and starts on the road to recovery by yearend which then turns into 4-6% growth over the next couple years. What would this mean for the US economy/market? Would it matter if the recovery was export driven (decreasing yen) or internally generated (strong yen). My question is sparked by a column in the NYTIMES today in which the author "guarantees" that this time Japan is back on track, don't be fooled this time the gov. is serious. If this is true and given that Japan has not been doing much for the last two/three years made me wonder what the affect would be for the US. Any replies would be greatly appreciated. Thanks