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To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (38483)	2/28/1999 2:51:00 PM
From: Razorbak	Respond to of 95453

Slider: "Cartel Dilemma" <<I would think that if that was/is the Saudi intention - then we may now be at the pivotal point given the upcoming OPEC meeting.>> Agreed. I think we're getting close, but many players - some inside OPEC, and some outside - are still cranking up their volumes to counteract price declines. This next OPEC meeting may be the straw that breaks the camel's back. <<But, if OPEC doesn't agree to new cuts, or total compliance; are the Saudi's really in a position to take the political, social and financial risks of playing their "trump card" any further ?>> I think they are. They did it before in the 1980's, and I think they'll do it again if they have to. The Saudi's measure their reserve life in centuries, not years, so they can afford to take the long term perspective, even though it would be painful for them, too, in the short term. <<Also; not that I would want this solution; but if we would have a new freefall in crude prices to $8, or even the prolonged enviroment of depressed prices of late; I believe that a member state, or two, may solve the problem with uncooperative member states via a terrorist solution (not a traditional military action).>> That's always a risk. That's why every producing government has taken extensive countermeasures to prevent such events from occurring since the beginning of this century. Some have been successful; others have not. Only time will tell. Place your bet, and take your chances. Spin the wheel. Will the ball fall on black or red? Red Razor ;~D