To: vc21 who wrote (10056 ) 2/28/1999 6:14:00 PM From: Jeff Bond Respond to of 14266
ESPN Sports would be an outstanding franchise to obtain in my mind. Great Idea! That's exactly the kind of first rate deal I think of, when I see THQI expanding their presence in the industry. But, my point in defending Mr. Farrell in running the company was obviously not well enough made. When I discussed the company developing contingency plans, I didn't make clear my thought that securing a FULL 10-year deal with WWF was an effective contingency plan. It doesn't address the point about having a lag between the last sales of WCW and the first sales of WWF, but I am making the assumption that the company has learned their lesson from this event. This can be inferred by the length of the WWF contract, as well as the company's efforts to extend the Rugrat's contract now instead of later. There is no need to develop a contingency plan concerning WWF, and by securing an extension on the contract with Nickelodeon for Rugrats, that license can not later come back to haunt THQI, as the value of it becomes more apparant. In a way, the company IS developing a contingency plan by securing long-term contracts. My thought was made in hind-sight, and I'm pretty sure well beaten in the board room. I am having a hard time thinking of any upcoming license agreement that will be expiring soo, and is worth the effort I mentioned. I WOULD find it silly if a situation similar to the WCW issue were to occur again though. Acquisitions are not a bad idea, except for what I consider one drawback, they come with associated baggage. In acquiring any company, you have to take the bad with the good. I'd think that having the best management in the industry would allow a company to independently make new license agreements a better option. If there simply is NO good licenses available, then maybe that is the best option available. But, I can't help but think there is going to be some first rate deals coming up. I'd hate to see THQI have to deal with unnecessary costs involved in an acquisition, if the capital could be used to develop new games. On relating PE to growth rates, your point is a good one. I can only say that PE levels have been historically much lower in the general market, and that THQI is a much better deal than ERTS, or most other stocks for that matter. I agree growth rates are important, but I think the means of growth must be factored in as well. In essence, THQI was able to achieve much of it's growth through WCW. By losing this license, the company is being punished by investors who are betting on them not being able to replace this growth. We know better, but this illustrates the fact that the growth needs to be sustainable to be rewarded by the investment community. When THQI makes a 10-year deal with the WWF, when THQI extends the Rugrats deal for another 4 years, these are DEFINITE moves to ensure maintaing that growth. So, I think the company is making the necessary moves to secure a PE that more closely is tied to the growth rate by making long-term deals. The only other point I think is important is that THQI NEEDS to enter the PC arena with a bang. If they try to sneak in, I'm not sure they are going to develop the presence they desire. PC games are pretty popular, and I speak for myself when I say they are of higher quality than console games. It seems like a logical growth area for the company in my mind. When the company exercises the OEM deal and sells games at bargain levels, I think they do so with a purpose. Consider if THQI develops a name in the PC arena through saturation using OEM deals, then comes out with a first-rate PC game like Quake or Starcraft. The exposure would be very important then, having done much to legitimize and expose the company to the public. I think my suggestions are only that. Since we are not privvy to what occurs inside the company, it is impossible to know how much of what is discused here has already been discussed. My guess is probably most if not all of what we've discussed here, and probably long before it was discussed here :o) I'm comfortable with the company, but I think the recent action highlights the pains of being a smaller company in a big-company world. It's simply punishing to have big plans, intelligent management, and not have the means to make things happen. I know that feeling very well myself; it is THE bane of being a small company. Regards, JB