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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PCSS who wrote (50500)	2/28/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Respond to of 97611

Sunday February 28, 5:07 pm Eastern Time WALL ST WEEK AHEAD-Market mood turns cautious By Cal Mankowski NEW YORK, Feb 28 (Reuters) - A spike in long-term interest rates and worries about a slump in personal computer sales have started a caution light flashing on Wall Street. ''We think positive earnings growth will lead to higher stock prices but not to the extent that we saw stock prices increase last year,'' said Howard Kornblue, senior vice president and senior portfolio manager of the Pilgrim America MagnaCap Fund. All eyes will be on technology stocks in the coming week after some of the bigger names in the group were hit by a barrage of selling on Friday. Analysts were debating whether personal computer sales were going into a seasonal slowdown or something more serious was taking place. Two investment conferences set for New York this week will be closely watched for new clues about where technology is going. Jupiter Communications has a conference scheduled where many Internet companies will discuss their strategies, while a Morgan Stanley Dean Witter conference will hear presentations from many computer service companies. ''The overall climate toward technology companies showing powerful earnings is still favorable,'' argued Richard Driehaus, chief investment officer at Driehaus Capital Management Inc. He noted that the small and mid-cap technology issues that he likes have been volatile recently and may continue to be volatile in the near term. But he said many or the stocks can be bought on the declines. He cited the case of Network Solutions Inc. (Nasdaq:NSOL - news), which had dropped to the 142 area two weeks ago but as of Friday's close had recovered 40 points. Network Solutions, which registers names like .com for businesses going on the Internet, finished at 181-1/2 Friday, gaining 4-7/16 on the day. ''This is not really scaring us too much,'' Driehaus said. Referring to Friday's drop in QLogic Corp. (Nasdaq:QLGC - news), he said, ''We would buy it in here.'' QLogic closed at 58-1/8 on Friday, dropping 4-7/8 for the day. For bigger name technology issues, however, Driehaus said some of them may be making a rolling top in their chart patterns. International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM - news) was hit hard on Friday, falling 3-7/8 to 169-3/4, while Dell Computer Corp. (Nasdaq:DELL - news) fell 1-5/8 to 80-1/8 and Compaq Computer Corp. (NYSE:CPQ - news) fell 6-3/16 to 35-1/4. Concern about technology issues was not the only issue spooking investors last week. A rise in the yield on the benchmark 30-year Treasury bond to the 5.6 percent area, highest since last August, was blamed for a big sell-off in stocks on Wednesday which had the Dow Jones industrial average dropping 145 points. Some traders may be hesitant to do anything this week before Friday's report on February payroll employment. Although robust growth is expected, by week's end the market will have had plenty of time to adjust to the outlook for a stronger economy. In a Reuters survey, non-farm payrolls are seen growing by 245,000 and the jobless rate is seen steady at 4.3 percent. Marshall Acuff, equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, said long-term interest rates have room to decline from current levels, but he says the more important point is that 1999 is likely to be the first in some time where rates on a calendar year basis do not decline. He expects stocks to be in a trading range for much of 1999, meandering between 8,000 and 10,000 on the Dow. ''We don't think that the recent spike up in rates is going to stick,'' said Kornblue. But he said for the year stocks may be up 9-12 percent, a respectable showing by historical standards and lackluster only by comparison with the outsized gains in each of the past four years. Kornblue said he was pleased with fourth-quarter earnings posted by stocks that he owns such as General Electric Co. (NYSE:GE - news), McDonald's Corp. (NYSE:MCD - news) and Tricon Global Restaurants Inc. (NYSE:YUM - news). The Dow index finished Friday at 9,306, dropping 60 points on the day. The Treasury bond rose 31/32 pushing the yield down to 5.58 percent from Thursday's 5.65 percent.

To: PCSS who wrote (50500)	2/28/1999 7:28:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Michael... Check out CNBC, Joe Kernan currently interviewing one of the golfer's at the tournament in Tuscon. El

To: PCSS who wrote (50500)	2/28/1999 10:36:00 PM
From: Pruguy	Respond to of 97611

you are quite the optomist and I hope for the shareholders you are correct....I myself am feeling lucky that I was down to my core position on this announcement.....My larger investments will stay in aol, rnwk and bcst until late summer....At that point it may make sence for cpq to make a powerful christmas season run-up....til then...I have no confidence in this stock

To: PCSS who wrote (50500)	3/1/1999 6:54:00 AM
From: rupert1	Respond to of 97611

Michael: Your short, sweet analysis is an accurate statement of the formal position. It must be difficult for you to take a paper hit of 30% on such a large, long position. I admire your ability to compartmentalise it and get on with the enjoyment of life. Within a reasonably time-frame you will be enjoying a very good return on your investment once again. Many will seek to look beyond the formal position. As speculation reigns the market will throw up inequities which will present opportunities to those positioned to take advantage of them The better speculation will seek to make reasonable deductions from facts - and we have had some of that on this thread: the worsed speculation will seek to throw gasoline on the fire with fear, uncertainty and dread - we have had some of that, too. Even if CPQ is to rock-and-roll in the 30's and low 40's for a period, that will provide a very good trading opportunity for those who understand the fundamentals of the company and the industry, and even more scope for profit than if it were to ascend in a straight line to $50. But I would be happy for you, and for other longs, if the second came true. My average price is already below $40 (not counting profits already realised) and I am happy with that. I will attempt to reduce my average by buying in quantity if it stays around $35 or goes lower. If it were to pop to $39 quickly I might sell some of my position for a quick trade on the expectation of a couple of points pullback, and on and on. Good golfing!

To: PCSS who wrote (50500)	3/1/1999 7:10:00 AM
From: Mao II	Respond to of 97611

victor: As I was on Friday, I am a buyer anywhere in the neighborhood of New Improved CPQ share price of 35 +/- ... Having trudged through this weekend's posts -- what a read! and, seriously, what a great thread this is -- my opinion hasn't changed one bit (altho I did experience a bit of volatility). Friday's market action was off point. This stock will head higher from here and any dips should be taken advantage of. This is just my opinion, of course, and all bets are off in the unlikely events CPQ/INTC make negative statements or bond prices drop further. Gotta go now. Later.M2