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Non-Tech : Tulipomania Blowoff Contest: Why and When will it end? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (1049)	2/28/1999 7:59:00 PM
From: Don Pueblo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3543

Beara, those charts you worked up are nifty. I have a real simple thing I look at for tops, aside from all the normal regular stuff like huge volume and nasty chops and a stupid thread on SI called "Can You Beat 50% a Month" and CNBC hosts laughing about how great everything should be next week after this little correction is over and stocks that have no friggin' earnings splitting, etc. etc.: Check out the 13 period RSI on the daily COMP. Look for a spike above 60 in conjunction with a top (mid Jan). Then look for a higher number on the COMP and a corresponding spike on the RSI, higher than 60 but lower than the first RSI spike, (Feb. 2.) See it? That's how I called the top on Feb. 2. It was an educated guess on Feb 2., but it sure looks like a good call now. Now check the same thing late Nov early Jan on the DOW, when the real smart money was moving into coin-o'-the-realm. Same signal, not as strong, but it's there. Check out the stochastic. 3 months pegged at the top. Hello... If I were running 100 million, and could be in cash, man, that's where I'd be. Or boxed to the hilt on AMZN, YHOO, and EBAY. Getting back in? I wouldn't care how long I had to wait for the blood, I'd just be sitting and waiting for whatever excuse comes up for the market to get crushed. The average return this year will probably be around 12%, and if you want 12%, you are going to have to pick your entry right. The sheep won't even know this one is coming, they will buy into every dip while the big boys sell into every rally. The redistribution of all that cash that went into the market last year.