To: Hawkmoon who wrote (29229 ) 3/1/1999 9:10:00 AM From: George Castilarin Respond to of 116764
MARKET UPDATE (2/26/99): Yesterday we said to keep an eye on gold as we thought it might recover as the day progressed, and it did -- as did silver. Today both have turned south with a mixed bag in the currency markets. The yen is up and the euro (and European national currencies) down. The big story this week has been the drop in the 30 year U.S. Treasury with many viewing the fall as a sign that Greenspan couldn't control the upward bias of interest rates even if he wanted to. Today there was some recovery in the bond market despite robust growth in GDP (+6% forecasted). Some bond market experts say that because of the strong growth numbers we could have a reversal as early as today. Of course, any rise in interest rates would be a huge negative for stocks. In Europe gold was down on light volume but silver went higher on more borrowing to meet forward obligations -- the chief feature of this market in its recent run-up. Today's marginal downside in silver might be short-lived under the circumstances. Asia reports good physical demand in gold with some forwarding by Australian mining firms as a result of the hammering being taken by the Australian dollar in foreign markets -- a circumstance which drives local gold prices higher. Bridge reports that yesterday's rise in silver resulted from "aggressive fund short covering." On Y2K: An extremely important report leaked by Knight Ridder News Services on Wednesday has received short shrift in the most media both print and electronic. The important findings of a special Senate panel on the risks of Y2K to the U.S. economy and social structure should nevertheless be considered by each and every citizen. Since the mainstream press has once again failed the American public with respect to important information that will impact all of us, we felt some duty to at least offer a summary of those important findings. The San Jose Mercury News, one of the few that actually took the panel seriously, stated that "the sober study...concludes that while both government and business have worked hard to correct the Y2K problem, their efforts began late, remain insufficient and consequently some incalculable level of economic disruption is inevitable." Chairman Robert F. Bennett, R-Utah and Vice-Chairman Christopher J. Dodd, D-Conn. said "Make no mistake this problem will affect all of us individually and collectively in very profound ways...It will indeed impact individual businesses and the global economy. In some cases, lives could even be at stake." I do not know how you get more serious than that. Here is how the panel breaks down various potential Y2K problems as reported by San Jose Mercury News: Utilities: Only 50% of electric utilities has repaired Y2K systems as of December. Of greatest concern were rural electrical utilities where they say blackouts are likely. A "prolonged" national blackout is unlikely. Health Care: 64% of hospitals have no plans to test for Y2K problems before crunch date. 90% of doctors are unaware of how they will be affected (Ed. Note: as can be applied to the rest of us). Medicare and health insurance programs are behind in fixing their payment systems. The health industry is the "worst prepared" of the sectors examined. Telecommunications: 95% of systems are expected to be ready. Transportation: The nations 670 airports started compliance too late, have made major strides but have a long way to go. "Planes will not fall out of the sky," says the report, "but flight rationing to some areas of the country is possible. Finance: Banks and automated tellers are expected to function and to have enough cash. The Fed intends to expand available currency to $200 billion to cover withdrawals, up from the $50 billion figure bandied about earlier. Ed. Note: What was interesting about this part of the report was the lack of positive information which makes us suspect that here is where the greatest vulnerability might lie. Government: Preparedness varies. Among the least prepared is the Defense Department which does not raise anyone's comfort level. Business: Banking, insurance and finance are "furthest ahead". Health care, oil, agriculture, food processing, construction are "behind". Ed. Note: Furthest ahead is a relative term that lacks anything close to an objective analysis. International: Venezuela and Saudi Arabia, which together supply 30% of U.S. oil imports are both 12 to 18 months behind the U.S. in Y2K readiness. The Senate panel's suggestions: Keep copies of financial statements. Stockpile a "small amount" of food and water, but avoid "extremes". This last revelation (under International) sent a chill through me (perhaps a cold premonition) the first time I read it. All fellow goldmeisters would be well served to spend some time with today's report and try to sort out what it means. I am certain that there will be much discussion at the USAGOLD FORUM on this matter, as I will be posting it there shortly (Click below.). We invite you to join in on the discussion of this very important matter to all of us. --------------------------------------------------- The full report downloads slowly atmercurynews.com