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Gold/Mining/Energy : Swift Energy (SFY) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: compradun who wrote (694)	3/4/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: Mark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1602

Was last week the bottom ? It's premature to hope that last week might have been the bottom for SFY, but there are a number of positive signs which might give us some hope - 1) The dive in the share price below $6 was instigated by a bloody day on the futures market where NG prices fell well below $1.70. There were concerns about $1.60 being broken. However, this week the price has risen steadily, and NG now has a future price of around $1.77 (for May). It seems that the catalyst for this was the much publicised comments about the drilling count being so low (and that there would likely be an NG shortage looming next year). A good graph of the dive and recovery in the price can be found at - charts.quotewatch.com 2) The price of NG is going to be influenced by the price of oil. (They are roughly linked at a rate of 6:1). Subsequent to the turn in the NG price, there have been some positive movements in the price of oil. This will have a positive effect on the climate in which all of the O&G stocks trade. 3) Faced with a change in sentiment, it will be interesting to see what the shorts do. It is premature to predict whether the shorts will run for (to?) cover, or even if they are "all out of tricks" yet, however, if the rally gets going, there must be increased probability of a short squeeze, which could do wonders for the price. 4) It would not take much positive movement in the price for the company to break it's moving averages. If this happens, then there could be a whole lot more positive interest. (Checkout - iqc.com ) 5) Recent concerns about the high levels of valuations in the big stocks (and tulip.com!) plus fears about a slowdown in the PC space are making the mature players nervous. Small stocks are likely to do better as a consequence, and defensive sectors are likely to benefit. O&G is a prefered defensive sector. It is way too early to suggest that this week marks a seed change, and there is still a strong chance of volatility to come. I guess we will know that things are solidly on the turn if we see the volume pick up strongly. Finger's crossed ! Mark p.s. If anyone is speaking to the company, can they ask about the Yahoo rumour about problems at the latest well ? It's probably not significant (or may be another short scare) but it'd be nice to know. Thanks.