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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (23)	3/1/1999 1:15:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

David: Eye-opening.... yup..... that's the game in modern drug discovery..... automate and spend, nail as many targets as possible during this period where innovation allows. Biologists know that medicine is in its infancy. Grab, grab, grab, grab. That's why I say that the nature of the business is going to change, going forward..... markets will be much more fragmented, with companies throwing a larger number of products at the market. And, as I've reviewed elsewhere, one should consider enabling patents as "products". Gonna be fun. Rick

To: LLCF who wrote (23)	3/1/1999 1:37:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

David, I like the methodology and think it's certainly very useful to look projects the way the company probably does... is that where you got the idea to look the value this way? Precisely. The point is Rick's "old-fashioned way" requires us to estimate the chance of success and the likely market size. Now Novartis knows a lot more about those two numbers than we do, and so if they are spending $100m on a drug that they only own half of, this tells us something interesting about their estimate. This method is particularly useful when you are dealing with a "real" company with lots of real choices of where to spend their money. A biotech may spend $50m on their own trial just because they see no alternative to plowing ahead - "in for a penny, in for a pound" or maybe more appropriately: I am in blood Steeped in so far, that should I wade no more, Returning were as tedious as go o'er Peter