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To: Boplicity who wrote (105978)	3/1/1999 2:34:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Gregory, I was not predicting inflation. I was simply pointing to fears. But you also need to consider this: while the world may be awash in oil that does not mean that it is available. Iraq has not substantial delivery system. We have seen decreases in drilling activity for almost two years now. And oil prices can fluctuate tremendously on the spot market. The other issue is that Japan is repatriating its dollars from the US bond market. I am not a hawk on inflation. I believe that the fears are overblown, and in any event believe that interest rates are too high. I also believe that the economy, which is increasingly technology driven, can sustain higher growth rates than the old smokestack economy. But we cannot neglect the fact that the bond market is subject to supply/demand pressures. US government borrowing adds to supply and Japanese repatriation of funds decreases demand and increases supply, and inflation fears shift the curve. All of these factors lead to higher yields. TTFN, CTC

To: Boplicity who wrote (105978)	3/1/1999 2:53:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

re: inflation... energy costs are tremendous factors that cause inflation..i must disagree with chuz, as far as asia heating up, other than japan the larger asian economies are net exporters of oil...japan imports primarily alaskan north slope, iran,iraq...sometimes analysts(not speaking of chuz) can't see the forest for the trees, as in 10/97, when they felt the oil service sectors were a hedge against the asian collapse, all they had to do was look at a map and see the number of working rigs in the china sea...not only are there vast reserves, but new technology allows additional production at low cost from previously expensive fields...markets are leading indicators...but analyze greenspans 1998 humphrey hawkins, and i think you will find his predictions 20-40% off...no crystal balls...just brass ones..regards ed a.