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To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105992)	3/1/1999 6:13:00 PM
From: hsg	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

what are the implications for Dell of a slowing personal PC market? CNNfn after the bell Micron issues warning, Walter sees problems, STAR Telecom beats Street March 1, 1999: 5:57 p.m. ET NEW YORK (CNNfn) - In yet another blow for the troubled personal-computer industry, Micron Electronics (MUEI) issued a profit warning for the second quarter after the close of trading Monday. The Nampa, Idaho-based company pointed to purchase deferrals resulting from the early promotion and late-quarter timing of Intel's Pentium III processor introduction, a slowdown in its strategic government segment, and continued industry pricing pressure in its consumer business.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105992)	3/1/1999 9:27:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

chuz, thanks your kindness and usual courtesy....re:inflation/oil... a conundrum???? let's look at your query from a different vantage point..."...what kind of oil prices would we have if asian economies were as they were in 96-97....why did oil prices drop so rapidly"... the young tigers of the asean nations honed their claws on the very thing that eventually declawed them......oil! other than japan,korea and the prc...the majority of the tigers:malaysia,sarawak,sabah,brunei,indonesia had drastic changes in their economies beginning in the mid eighties from the untold oil riches in the shallow south china sea...the nationalized oil exploration and production launched them into the twenty first century, with infrastucture and economic explosion...the direct benefit of the boom was to japan,and korea...whose heavy industries and plant constructors were backlogged with oil related projects...this was saudi arabia part deux...as the infrastucture was established, the young tigers became net exporters of oil...to a market already soft...the lack of cash flow hurt the korean and japanese economies...it was history repeating itself, much like the bust of the mid eighties in the arabian/persian(depending how you view it)gulf...initial dollars to infrastructure, beyond that the net exporter becomes part of the problem...malaysia at 2/3 production capacity...compelled to slow down as vision 2000, to be the pearl of the asean slipped away...built the tallest building in the world with petro dollars...but what to do now for an encore... we live on a planet that all life forms are carbon based, allowing a replenishment of fuel such as oil,gas,coal,lignite,timber,peat,...as long as there is time new fuels will be produced... technology caused the rapid drop of oil prices..it became too easy to produce...deep well drilling(+1500ft), steam injection,, opened up previously unreachable fields, and made dry wells wet with crude..... discount periods of political unrest and oil prices have trended downwards...during the embargo of the seventies it was a cartel of arab nations and venezuela...there was no north slope of alaska,south china sea,russia, on and on and on....we have abundant energy for at least several hundred years...are the bond traders looking out that far? oil/energy is a convenient political tool to create inflation... my question to you chuz...was there ever inflation in a time when there was not an over riding political event...e.g vietnam war,russian wheat deal,arab oil embargo,etc...i'm a firm believer that government produces inflation with is decisions and regulations... it is a new world, due to a tangible technology,which increases an unmeasurable productivity...the government still scratching its head over the impact on economic figures.. but still it's the perception of the future that moves markets...and long term i've found all econometric models seriously lacking...mr greenspan in his 98 humphrey hawkins predictions was 20-40% off...can't survive with crystal balls...just brass ones! ed a.

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (105992)	3/2/1999 9:21:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Oil supply/demand If I may respond....a contributing factor has been the Venezuelans "shift" in production policy in the last couple years.. For years and years........until, maybe two years ago, Venezuela's oil conglomerate believed that it was better off NOT attempting to produce (all the oil they could) and SELLING all the oil they could on the open market....that they would realize greater long-term revenues by selling less at higher prices... About two years ago, it was suddenly decided that oil was fungible, and that it would be better policy to pump as much as possible, and sell as much as possible going forward....even at lower prices.. I'm not sure why this change occured, but I know it did.... Ironically (or maybe not)....oil priced have "tanked" (no pun intended) every since....oil makes up about 50% of Venezuelan export revenues, and a significant % of gvt. revenues each year (I think between 30-40%).....last year, the Venezuelan gvt. budgeted a per barrel price of $18....on average, per barrel sold for $ 11-12...so you can imagine the pressure the Venezuelan gvt has been under to collect additional revenue from oil...and, obviously, this has been accomplished by producing/selling full-throttle (self-defeating..., I know) Also, This shift coincides with Venezuela opening up (much more of their) oil production to foreign producters (mostly U.S.) 2/3 years ago.....this has put more supply on the market as well...and much more is in the pipeline...(lots of funded projects)....As you probably know, Venezuela oil company is a mostly-state owned monopoly...and their U.S. distribution arm is CITGO (although I think they recently sold some/all of it) Venezuela has an unbelievable amount of oil...until recently, they were the largest crude supplier for the U.S..They probably will be again soon...Between Iraq/Venezuela/Saudi Arabia/Mexico....lots of oil there, and no one wants to give up share anytime soon (no matter what they say in public...)