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To: Boplicity who wrote (106018)	3/1/1999 8:14:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Hi Greg,..Re;. the budget surplus, while it's folly to count on them knowing the dems., could lead to reduction of funds that need to be borrow, which in turn reduce the the supply. Reduction of supply has already occurred in at least two if not more of the government auctions this year because of the surplus and increased tax receipts. More reductions are scheduled. This will in effect establish a ceiling on long rates as long as the surplus is managed as such. Repatriation is an annual event and is not significantly different this year. If you look at the chart of the bond yield for the past five years, you can notice that except for '95, first quarter backup in rates has happened every year for the last four years. bigcharts.com Finally, the Japanese are issuing more debt in an effort to liquify but even with the backup in yield on the JGB, it is not enough to compete with more closely held US issues. Just my 2 cents, <g> Lee

To: Boplicity who wrote (106018)	3/1/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Greg, much of the surplus is an illusion at this point. The Social Security Trust Fund has been used as a source of cash to balance the budget, but the Republicans don't want to pay down the debt or repay the trust fund. The trust fund had been buying US debt and thus funding the budget. It seems to me that if the debt is paid down interest rates will drop and this in turn acts like an indirect refund because consumer interest rates as well as corporate bond rates ought to drop as well. TTFN, CTC

To: Boplicity who wrote (106018)	3/2/1999 9:02:00 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Greg- the dollar has been strengthening against the yen/euro....Japanese have come out in favor of a weaker yen lately...currency markets would like to see at 135.....and the Euro still struggles under coordination problems, and a possible rate cut sometime during the year...difficult to see this situation dramatically changing short-term.. I told a friend of mine..its not that the dollar is so strong...it is that the dollar is the best option (of 3 weak currencies).. So, the dollar's strength is another positive for our argument vs. inflation (over the next several months).. (A trader i know insists that the currency markets tend to be unidirectional..once they move one way, everyone wants it to continue in that direction, until there is a clear stop and turn..so that no one gets that rear hit when the door shuts on them)