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To: Brad Bolen who wrote (22586)	3/1/1999 9:12:00 PM
From: RocketMan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86076

Hey, I will take a coin flip any time over my trading batting average LOL

To: Brad Bolen who wrote (22586)	3/2/1999 8:41:00 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

Brad, 50:50 chance is basicly a coin flip. But to predict such strong movements is so difficult that a 25% success rate is good for such a difficult task. Take for example baseball, what is considered a good batting average - over 30%. If a hitter would ever get to 50% he would be considered unbelievable. I guess what I am trying to say is that it depends on how difficult the task is. How many analysts do we know who have been able to nail only a 5-10% correction 50% of the time. Now we are talking about 50% of the time hitting a 20% dump. Additionally his success rate was really 75% since the 2 in the mid-90's were not market wide crashes of greater than 20%. Very few consider the corrections in 96 and 97 as crashes, they were strong corrections. I also understand that PITBULL's system calls a crash when it reaches -10. I wonder where the reading was for those corrections in 96 & 97, it could have been close to -10. If it was close to -10 it would have at least been a warning signal. Seeya