SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Copeland who wrote (9404)3/1/1999 8:34:00 PM
From: AlienTech  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 43080
 
>>With the long bond on the verge of hitting 5 3/4, if the market doesn't severely drop within the next ten days, I'm going to eat my hat. <<

I will hold you to that.
In OCT when the Bond went to almost 4 1/2 the S&P should have gone to 1500, but instead it went to 925.



To: Copeland who wrote (9404)3/1/1999 8:46:00 PM
From: LastShadow  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 43080
 
Use less salt when eating your hat, unless its a new one.

Actually, I figure Thursday is the big shoe dropping day, March 4th for a couple of reasons:

The employment numbers coming out Wednesday will show continued strength, and since its looking like ther really isnt a correlation between inflation and unemployment like in the good old days (something the media gunks haven't figured out yet but Al Greenspan has) the bond marketers will panic and try to get everyone else to panic. At any rate there will probably be a real short a bond selloff, but then bonds will do nothing. The market will tank, and then rebound on Friday. I figure I will either exit the Bear fund Wednesday if the SPX is below 1215, or Thursday for sure if that scenario plays out. Both Thursday and Friday will be great days to go long for both trades and position holds if this is how things work out.

If not, then I'll take may partof the hat with a little chianti and some fava beans...

lastshadow

and here is some off-topic stuff...

The Internet Index
Number 23
Inspired by "Harper's Index"*
Compiled by Win Treese (treese@openmarket.com)
Co-author of "Designing Systems for Internet Commerce"
28 February 1999

Estimated number of Internet users in China: 1,750,000

Estimated number of users who downloaded the Starr Report from CNN
Interactive in the first two days it was available: 1,700,000

Fee to be charged by Delta Airlines for tickets not purchased on the
Internet, in dollars: 2
Percentage of Delta Airlines tickets sold via the Internet in 1998: less
than 3

Estimated US consumer spending on online retail purchases during 1998
holiday season, in billions of dollars: 8.2

Volume of Internet initial public offerings underwritten by Goldman
Sachs in 1998, in millions of dollars: 435.6

Number of members of the U.S. National Advisory Commission on Electronic
Commerce: 19

Number of Internet companies based in New York City that have gone public
since 1990: 16
Number of Internet companies based in San Jose, California, that have
gone public since 1990: 6

Estimated percentage of retail stock trades now taking place on the
Internet: 25

Number of e-mail messages received by the U.S. SEC about potential
Internet-related stock fraud, as of August, 1998: 120

Prize awarded by Cad.Lab for a new company name (Think3) through an
Internet contest, in dollars: 50,000

Percentage of print journalists connected to the Internet: 87

Number of outlet stores being closed by Lands' End, partly because of
using the Internet: 3

Bank's cost to process an in-person transaction, in dollars: 1.07
Bank's cost to process an Internet transaction, in dollars: 0.01

Number of E-Zines (online magazines) listed in John Labovitz's e-zine
list, as of January, 1999: 3022

Estimated percentage of organizations with specific plans to test and
deploy IPv6 in 1999: 24




To: Copeland who wrote (9404)3/1/1999 11:12:00 PM
From: pressboxjr  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 43080
 
What about 1929??

LOL

JR




To: Copeland who wrote (9404)3/2/1999 8:30:00 AM
From: tom pope  Respond to of 43080
 
>>I'm starting to get sick of analysts on CNBC stating that this is some sort of new era in which the stock market can soar through the roof while the bond market crashes. Sorry -- but it didn't happen in 1998, in 1990, or in 1987. <<

That's true, but momentum can keep things rolling for a while. In 1987 didn't bond prices top in late spring/early summer, while the stock market started to roll over in September?

Subject to correction.