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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/2/1999 7:46:00 AM
From: reg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

If in over your head then lighten up a bit! I don't see how you could be down big money on this stock. I'm down 5 bucks a share but I only own 50 shares so not a big deal.

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/2/1999 9:26:00 AM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 10280

Bob, I think the issue of how well the improved drugs will do in the marketplace has to be dealt with on a case-by-case basis. It isn't an easy prediction, because it is based on both the level of "improvement" and the pricing and marketing surrounding both the old and new drugs. To deal with your drugs in turn: 1. Allegra - I think this is a red-herring. The patent interference suit is simply a factual question of who did what first. If SEPR were to lose, this would have some financial impact and some credibility impact, but I don't think it would have any material long-term effect. 2. For Xopenex, it is still up in the air what labelling they will get, and we also await the results of the long-term studies they are doing. If these studies convincingly show that long-term albuterol use is bad and long-term Xopenex use is OK, then we will ultimately see Xopenex capture most if not all of the market. If these studies aren't as convincing, then Xopenex and albuterol will co-exist, with marketing and pricing the significant factors in determining market share. 3. Propulsid is likely to be simple if things go as anticipated. The old version will disappear, and be replaced by the new version. 4. I have always been of the view that Prozac II will not simply replace the generic Prozac and automatically be a $3 billion drug. Some portion of the people on Prozac will simply switch to the cheaper generic, doubtless encouraged by their HMO's and managed care formularies. My guess is that Prozac II would still be a significant drug though, even if all that differentiates it is Lilly's marketing. Lilly and SGP have every incentive to defend against the generics by plugging the new improved versions. A small amount of "improved" and a big amount of marketing muscle can do wonders. Claritin and Prozac aren't necessarily the best antihistamine and anti-depressants in their respective classes, but they far and away have the biggest market share. Peter

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/2/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: David Howe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10280

<< Will Lilly and SGP continue to push the ICE ? If it is not better, will consumers pay up ? >> They have no choice. Their patents are expiring and they will use their partnership with SEPR to extend their sales for another 15 - 20 years. They push SEPR's ICE or they push nothing at all. << WHAT IF no one cares about a half-way better mouse trap" question. >> Most drugs today are racemates (a 1:1 mixture of 2 isomers). Isomers are molecules that are non-superimposable mirror images of one another, much like right and left hands. In fact racemic drugs are called chiral drugs, from the Greek language, meaning "handedness". The two isomers are termed R and S. (from the SEPR web site) One isomer is there because it has a therapeutic effect. The other isomer that doesn't serve a therapeutic purpose is just along for the ride. It can float around your body and do whatever it wants (side effects). SEPR eliminates the unnecessary "hand". Now, if I'm choosing a drug, do I choose the pure one, or the one that has a hitchhiker along that plans to raise hell with my body? I choose the pure one, the ICE. Dave

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/2/1999 2:50:00 PM
From: j_fir2	Respond to of 10280

Bob, I ALMOST took profits on about a third of my stake in SEPR yesterday. The bond rating sounded kind of poor... They are burning a lot of cash. If you are interested in making a certain percentage or dollar amount only, that's often not a bad thing to do. But I resisted, because I've too often taken good profits on stocks that have gone on, remarkably, to much MUCH better places. And I've taken profits here before, twice, and always had to get in at a higher price/share. I think it's important to see the forest here, rather than just the trees. Not only do they have a lot of trees, these guys (patents) they've grown a whole forest. And the forest is growing (new appliations for ICEs). I think you need to put these shares away as a gift to your future, your grandchildren, whatever. Put a DON"T TOUCH sign on them. That's what I'm going to do.

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/2/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: rkrw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Bob, All your "what if's" are why stock targets based on earnings projections are discounted. If you think your "if's" are likely then discount at a high rate, i.e. 50%, if not, use a more standard 25%. In Sepracor's case, you could use different discount rates for different products and royalty streams as risk variables among each vary significantly imo.

To: Bob Swift who wrote (1863)	3/4/1999 7:46:00 PM
From: Don Miller	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Good questions Bob, I have followed this stock across three boards and I still have one question that furthers Bob's thread. Please let me introduce myself to this board, I'm a chemical engineer and a stock holder. I was introduced at 36 and told to wait for a drop to 25, got dumber by 44, smarter at 56, disbeliever at 86, convinced at 96, annoyed with myself by 125. But here for the duration. This by far the best thread I have seen. My question has burnt a $60 (membership) hole in my pocket today. When you have a front runner in the market place everbody constantly is trying to do your achievement one better. In the specialty chemical industry typically the front running (or best) compound has a half life that is well short of the patent term. I'm new to pharms. I suspect that drugs in general have a similar pattern, probably even shorter leadership due to higher profit margins. On other boards I have seen this stock valued on one year earning of just one patent. Can anybody tell me what the statical average duration is for the front running drug in the high profit margin areas? Can anybody tell me how this should impact the PV of this stock?