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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: virgil vancleave who wrote (9836)	3/2/1999 7:27:00 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 14162

i understand your hesitation, however, I understand each of the major occurences on the chart. Each major event is the result of an expectation or an actual news item. There's a lot of patient money in this stock. Some of that money will come off the table, at $30.00 as you say. So, that will be the first resistance line. The volume action at that point should be stronger than the last time it hit $30.00, in february, to propel it up to the next resistance at $38.00 (I will be watching that closely). I am NOT recommending this stock to anyone (I am biased because I am heavily invested). What I was looking for was critique of the points I made, in my charting analysis (as opposed to other peoples opinion about where the stock may or may not be going). I do appreciate your opinion though and will factor it into my decision making. My analysis is based upon acceptance of amprenavir, for market approval, by the FDA. This is an ASSUMPTION, in my analysis. If this comes to pass, it will occur by mid april (since the drug is fast tracked). If the drug is not approved, you are correct; the company will see first $20 and then $14, again! The REAL threat to the uptrend, assuming market approval of amprenavir, is an impending downtrend in the market. If we get approval AND a bear market simultaneously, you are probably correct; the stock may see $20.00, before heading north on earnings numbers. So, this is a risky play, but, I believe I know enough about technical charting to discern what will happen, when it is happening (I am watching it very closely). Having said that, I again ask for criticism about the points I raised regarding the chart formation (ie please refrain from more fundamental analysis), in my previous post. All comments welcome, and appreciated though!