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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mudcat who wrote (28442)	3/2/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 32384

The earlier the milestone, the lower it is. An IND filing is at the earliest level. LGND has revealed PFE milestone payments to them for filing INDs for SERMs. I expect the AHP payments for IND filings to be in the same ball park.

To: Mudcat who wrote (28442)	3/2/1999 3:52:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

I think I can guess the RANGE of the AHP milestone for an IND, by looking at the Qs filed with the SEC. (It's amazing how much one can quickly discover, simply by searching Qs and Ks with the term "revenues.") The current press release says On March 26, 1998, Wyeth-Ayerst submitted an IND for the tissue selective estrogen (TSE), TSE-424... At that time, Wyeth-Ayerst also made an undisclosed milestone payment to Ligand as a result of the IND filing. Phase II clinical trials of TSE-424 are expected to commence shortly. -------------- Checking the 1Q for 1998, filed in May 1998, I read: [First Q] Revenues in 1998 were derived from the Company's research and development agreements with (i) Lilly of $2.5 million, (ii) SmithKline Beecham Corporation $784,000, (iii) American Home Products of $705,000, (iv) Abbott Laboratories of $300,000 ---------------- Likewise, checking the 3Q for 1998, filed in Nov 1998, I find During 3Q, revenues from AHP: (iv) AHP of $99,000, During the first nine months of 1998, revenues from AHP: (iii) AHP of $1.3 million ---------------- From this, I surmise that Ligand gets ongoing funds from AHP for R&D, with a bigger chunk in 1Q98 for the TSE-424 Milestone -- something between $600,000 and $700,000. -- maybe up to $1 million, if the milestone is paid in installments. ----------------------------------------- Aside: Good news we've ignored in this latest press release: "Phase II clinical trials of TSE-424 are expected to commence shortly." Hopefully, that will soon bring in more sustaining REVENUE, perhaps a larger amount than for an IND. And Phase II is a heck of a lot farther out of the pipeline than an IND. ------------------------------------------ Reminder: all these hopeful discussions are dependent on good results from the Targretin for ABC trials. THAT is what investors are betting on, for the intermediate time frame. THAT (imo) is the main term in the risk/reward equation. If that does not work out, we will know what it means to be in Ligand for the "long haul." Regards, Cheryl