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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: john t. brice who wrote (8822)3/2/1999 12:48:00 PM
From: FMK  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 27311
 
Re: Value of patents.
About a year ago a broker remembered that his company research estimated the value of Valence patents at somewhere over $8 per share.

I heard an estimate recently that royalties from the phosphate patents, could easily be in the hundreds of millions $ per year. I remember statements last year that the company estimated that royalty income could very well exceed revenues from Valence's own battery production.

I question whether this included the phosphate patents because they seem to have been developed more recently. If it doesn't, and nothing better comes along to improve battery performance by 40%, most all rechargeable battery makers will want it for competitive performance reasons and we might be looking at much higher annual royalty income!

Using the $1 per share earnings consensus per production line for four lines, I get $4 per share earnings. If royalty income equals or exceeds this, we are looking at $8 per share earnings. When? I believe the consensus is now that it is a question of "when", and not "if".

If you are convinced that the company will succeed, purcasing the stock under $10 should be a steal. Think how fast LITH quadrupled with only the news (that I am aware of) that they had diluted 50% and that a large company became represented on its board of directors and there may be future plans! Remember Valence already has joint-venture partners that have built plants!

So it appears the events necessary for a quadripling are in place for Valence. MCI/Worldcom Chairman has come on board, but we have only yet to dilute 50%!

I was reminded by a naysayer that getting to $100 might be very frustrating because the stock will probably split and we would have to work back up to $100 all over again!

Regards, FMK



To: john t. brice who wrote (8822)3/2/1999 1:05:00 PM
From: HQ  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Because of LITH I bought more VLNC today.

I got in on LITH originally (at $.30) because I believe in the li-poly battery market, and how it can/will benefit all players who can produce this golden egg. Watching LITH triple this week on *no news* has been most interesting. I could be wrong (it *could* be pump-and-dump), but I'm chalking up the rise to the fact that more and more people see the need for li-poly and have noticed the race going on; they then perhaps have chosen to get in with LITH, the cheapest entrant.

To those saying it's all pump-and-dump with LITH, all I can say is that I follow the pennies market and have seen many P&Ds happen. There is generally a frenzy of posts in places like BOBz Stock Tip Forum, Raging Bull, and Trader Cents, leading up to and during the P&D (and then the post mortems begin). I have not seen LITH mentioned *anywhere*, on any forum even once. So if it IS P&D driving LITH, I feel it must be coming from Asia and not North America.

This post is NOT meant as an endorsement of LITH; rather it's just to underscore what I perceive to be the overall excitement directed toward this industry. By ALL appearances LITH is *way* far behind Valence, and Valence does, in fact, appear IMHO to be poised for big news any day, i.e., a perfect product and a deal in hand for it. I believe our time with Valence is coming soon, which is why I bought more today and loaded up on options last week. And which is why I'm enjoying the attention another battery company is getting. We'll get ours!

Jeff HQ



To: john t. brice who wrote (8822)3/2/1999 9:36:00 PM
From: hcirteg  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 27311
 
Duckster that was me...15,000 shares of lith at .38...sold 5000at just uner $1. Holding for now...

HC



To: john t. brice who wrote (8822)3/3/1999 10:51:00 AM
From: John Curtis  Respond to of 27311
 
John: LITH?? Nah, I've stayed faaaaar away from THAT one, heh! I believe "Jac," in a post some time back in which she place a response to someone from the LITH thread who was posting here, just about summed up my view of them. Smelly, smelly, smelly; and she reference a certain stock detective website who had less than stellar commentary about their investigation of LITH. That LITH threadster then basically left "in a huff," if memory serves. Ahem!

Of course, this is not to say they're not a potential lith-poly battery production candidate, it's just that I've tended to have more negative experiences than positive ones whenever I've played with pennies, so I shy away from them. Why? Typically, d.d. data is hard to come by with 'em, 8 out of 10 times games are being played(and in the case of LITH I see they're currently trading at $0 19/32 x $0 41/64) by "sophisticated players" ruled by the invisible currents of self interest, and all sorts of other shenanigans play out where often you're the victim. Still, I keep them on the radar screen in the event they move beyond the realm of "partnerships/board participants" type of announcements into the world of production announcements.

Speaking of which I see VLNC's kind'a sort'a waddling around with a slight negative bias, and since its trendline has been broken and no material events have manifested themselves.....well, let's see if it can hold at ~$7, eh??

Regards!

John~