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Technology Stocks : Advanced Fibre (AFCI) ** IPO -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (1899)	3/2/1999 6:21:00 PM
From: Steve Morytko	Respond to of 3299

Why hasn't anyone bought AFCI? If AFCI is that last major (minor?) independent player in this line of equipment you've got to ask yourself why? Are their products inferior in some way? Maybe they don't have a large enough customer base and the big boys figure AFCI doesn't get them any market penetration (that they can't take away in short order). Is management holding out for too much money (if you ass-u-me there is a buyout pending - don't count on it). Now that everyone else has muscle AFCI has considerably less leverage too and quite possibly much few resources to draw on. I'm not convinced AFC is going to get a significant amount of the Internet growth opportunity just by osmosis. They're going to have to earn it. Their product represents a strategic deployment for their customers and the customer will forego a better box in favor of the big boys' box on the assumption that the big boys will provide the same function(s) a little farther out as an upgrade. The recent bad news makes this stock significantly riskier. It looks like we'll probably see more earnings warnings ~mid-March without some very significant good news. Much more down-side potential than up-side for this quarter. I'm still long but ... Steve