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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RXGOLF who wrote (28461)	3/2/1999 6:23:00 PM
From: Cheryl Galt	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 32384

>> Anymore happy thoughts<g>? Good luck << Greg, I hope my post wasn't offensive. or "negative." It's just that it's so easy to get carried away with the positive side of plans, and then be so disappointed when things don't work out as well as (or as soon as) planned. I just HATE disappointments, and insulate myself from that by trying to keep realistic expectations. I especially don't want to be disappointed with an outcome that is basically quite good, yet not as super-extravagant as I'd blindly hoped. I also don't want to let out-of-control wishful thinking lull me into forgetting to set up fall-back positions. I firmly believe that I'm better off relying on realism, than counting on luck. ------------- >> Judging by the price action ... << The market senses the 3Q and annual report hanging like a cloud over the stock. (Ligand had only $13.4 m revenue in the first 9 months of 1998, and likely a proportional amount in the 4th q --- and a burn rate of about $20m a quarter.) The market was disappointed that the Ligand/Lilly Pact will require at least an additional 18 months to get a drug to market. I certainly was surprised and disappointed that Lilly deemed LGD1268 and LGD1364 unacceptable for diabetes. Meanwhile, many competitors are working on diabetes drugs (thankfully, for patients). Why would I expect the market to be blase about that? Why would I expect the Market to discount the new price squeeze threatened by SuperGen's challenge? Why stick my head in the sand?? --------------- Better (imo) to focus on the only major card currently turned up in the deck: Here's hoping that the 180 women who've reached the end of the line in their fight against breast cancer get another chance from Targretin. The drug worked great for rats; as far as I know, it's never been tested on large human tumors. The trial's two doses are widely different (200 vs 500 mg/m2 per day). These women are gambling too. I fully expect price volatility (therefore I don't get emotional about it) until that gamble is settled, one way or the other. And I consider Ligand a highly speculative investment, especially near year end. STEEP risk/reward curve. Meanwhile, I plan to learn as much as I can about the various alternatives for breast cancer therapy, at EACH stage of the disease -- in order to better understand how Ligand's (and other companies') drugs fit into the total picture. Best regards, Cheryl BTW, If I've ever got any facts wrong, I welcome documented corrections. Opinions expressed are only my own -- and inexperienced ones at that, so I appreciate rebuttal. PS -- I hope you'll inform us if you see Panretin gel prescription go by your desk! The market needs confirmation of this drug's sale-ability. The jury has not come in on that yet, imo.