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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (7349)	3/2/1999 5:25:00 PM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Did you notice the money flow in Intel? Over 100mm in, very interesting for a big down day.

To: bobby beara who wrote (7349)	3/2/1999 6:03:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OTX may break the 324 neckline for the double top tomorrow as it is only 4 points away. COMS is a component of the OTX (OTC Most Actives) Index. It was down 5% from intraday high today and down 3% from previous close. This may occur concurrently with the SPX breaking out of its sideways pattern to the downside --- My surrogate NYX (NYSE Most Actives) index is within 1% of breaking below a similar rectangular formation.

To: bobby beara who wrote (7349)	3/2/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: Claud B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

bobby, Check your charts of the S&P and the Bonds as of last August. That's the last time rates were at these levels. The S&P at that time was about 100 points lower. What's more, while you may think bonds have bottomed, look what happened in August. Bonds rallied (rates down) and the S&P went on quite a trip lower. Just a point of information. ClaudB

To: bobby beara who wrote (7349)	3/2/1999 7:05:00 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

INDEX UPDATE ================================= The strong intraday reversal to the downside was quite ominous; however I feel there are too many short-term oversold signals right now for hard selling to continue straight down. Here are the positions of the indexes per my short-term technicals: DOW - JUST ENTERED OVERSOLD REGION SPX - CLASS 2 BUY OEX - CLASS 2 BUY HFX - CLASS 2 BUY NAZ - CLASS 2 BUY NDX - CLASS 2 BUY MSH - CLASS 2 BUY XCI - CLASS 1 BUY SOX - CLASS 2 BUY DOT - BORDERLINE OVERBOUGHT BKX - APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT XBD - APPROACHING OVERBOUGHT DRG - LOWER MIDRANGE RUT - MIDRANGE TYX - OVERBOUGHT RANGE The interest rates(TYX) are now in the OVERBOUGHT range and could reverse at any time now which would be a positive for the stock market, and since the overall market is in the OVERSOLD region the timing may be right for a bounce to the upside. In no way am I turning bullish, just trying to determine the short-term direction. Previously I mentioned that it surprised me that there was such a strong intraday reversal today since my short-term technicals were already near the oversold region at the time the selling started. This is a strong sign of weakness for the future, and any forthcoming bounce should be limited. In light of this and the still weak market internals, I feel that there will still be some more sideways trading. Since, I have been following the market for the last 2 years with this system, there has never been a strong selloff starting when my short-term technicals are so low. Statistically, almost all of the strong sell-offs start when my short-term technicals are in the upper-mid/overbought range. I still expect the strong selling to start in MARCH, but I agree with BOBBY BEARA that we could still see sideways trading into early APRIL. Since the overall market is in the CLASS 2 SELL region, the market could selloff a little more but with limited downside, and could bounce at any time now. I am suspecting that many may be waiting for the economic numbers on FRIDAY to find some direction. If the market doesnt bounce before FRIDAY, even if the numbers are bad for the market the downside should still be limited, and we should see some sort of bounce to the upside next week. If the numbers are good on FRIDAY the bounce should start then. For now feel that the 9050-9100 support area for the DOW should hold for this immediate down cycle, (edit) but will probably not hold for future down cycles. If 9050-9100 doesnt hold, THAT WOULD BE REALLY BAD. Seeya