To: D. Swiss who wrote (106273 ) 3/2/1999 5:45:00 PM From: Ian@SI Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
From a ML report on CPQ earnings downward revision, some interesting comments about the industry and Dell... +++++++++ Lowering 1Q Estimates On Friday we lowered our Compaq 1Q99 EPS estimate from $0.35 to $0.30 after the company indicated the quarter to date is under plan. ... We maintain our Neutral/Buy rating on CPQ shares. We believe Compaq is having problems in three areas: 1) sales to the small and medium-sized business (SMB) market, 2) channel inventory management, and 3) devaluation of the Brazilian real. 1. Compaq's SMB sales (as much as 40% of product sales) were weak through the first six weeks of the quarter. The SMB weakness was primarily in North America and Europe. ... IBM did not see weakness, and Dell and Gateway actually saw strong growth. ...Dell said it is seeing strength in small and medium business and sees this market as a major opportunity. Dell's revenue shortfall last quarter was not in this segment of the market. Dell's challenge was in pricing competitively enough on the Premiere Pages for runrate (maintenance) business in existing large corporate accounts. Dell has since adjusted its runrate pricing. Dell started its quarter constructively, right on plan, and with significant backlog coming out of 4Q. Still, 4Q's top-line disappointment suggests market weakness is a distinct possibility. IBM's expectations about worldwide unit growth have not changed. Relative to expectations at the beginning of the quarter, the U.S. is a bit weaker, Asia is stronger, and Europe is about the same. The company is seeing some pricing pressure but has not become more aggressive. The company is not pricing below Dell in order to gain market share. >/b>According to IBM, Y2K is not as big of an impact as much as Compaq is expecting. IBM considers its PC business to SMB customers more of an opportunity given its smaller exposure to that segment, but has not seen a slowdown.