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To: Math Junkie who wrote (28735)	3/2/1999 7:23:00 PM
From: Tony Viola	Respond to of 70976

Richard, >>>"Isn't January - February a time of seasonal weakness for PC makers?"<<< Yes, but that should have been factored into the quarter's earnings estimates, e.g., Intel made $1.19 last Q, consensus expectation is $1.10 this Q. >>>Is there evidence that this is more than seasonal weakness?<<< MUEI said yesterday that the PC market may have gone on hiatus this Q waiting for the Pentium III, which, they say, and I agree, is normal when a major new CPU chip comes out. >>>How are the year-on-year comparisons?<<< Don't know (2 out of 3 not bad?). TV

To: Math Junkie who wrote (28735)	3/2/1999 7:33:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Sure -- but 1999 is being sold as the big "PC recovery" year, after a slow-or-no revenue growth 1998. IMO, current valuations for everything from the boxmakers to the semis to the semi-eqipments are based on a rebound, not just a return to the previous status quo. The AMAT numbers, for example, are not pretty: -1%, '97-8, -2%, '96-7, not to mention the January (FY99) report. I think the markets are expecting some 40-80% revenue growth numbers out of AMAT, like '94-6; I don't see how those will come unless PCs/etc rebound first.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (28735)	3/2/1999 8:08:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Richard, Re:Isn't January - February a time of seasonal weakness for PC makers Yes, and yet every year at this time we see a selloff, as though this was entirely unexpected. If one wants to discredit Efficient Market Theory, they need to look no further than these selloffs. BK