Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Non-Tech : GNCI General Nutrition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger Bodine who wrote (43)	3/3/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: Richard Tsang	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 110

Roger, Thanks for the follow up. BancBoston Robertson and Stephens reiterated Buy on 2/24 and estimated $.30. The consensus of .34 as in both first call and Zacks may be old. So they are at least better than BRS estimated. Excerpts as follows: QUOTE: We believe early Q1:99 business trends have demonstrated improvement from Q4 results as we believe comps are tracking in the (2-3)% range as compared to (5)% comps in Q4:99. Management plans to launch its new advertising campaign, which emphasizes the high quality of GNC branded assortments, on March 1st. Management has budgeted 6% of sales toward its advertising and marketing campaign, a level flat to F1998 levels. We expect management to announce Q4:98 EPS results on March 4th with a 10:30 am EST conference call with the following dial-in number (800)283-1693. Based on (5)% comps, we maintain our Q4:98 EPS estimate of $0.30 vs. $0.39 a year ago, which yields a relatively flat F1998 of $1.25 vs. $1.24 a year ago. Our F1999 EPS estimate of $1.40, which assumes 11.3% annual EPS growth, projects negative low-single-digit comp trends in 1H:99 with comp improvement expected in the back half, as the company will anniversary the dramatic pricing declines in Q3:99. We have maintained our F2000 EPS estimate of $1.70, which assumes $0.18-0.20/sh EPS accretion from the Rite-Aid alliance. With the stock trading at 9.9x and 8.2x our F1999 and F2000 EPS estimate of $1.39 and $1.70, respectively, we continue to recommend purchase as we believe GNC's strong brand positioning coupled with Rite-Aid's credibility should capture considerable market share gains and drive EPS upside to our current estimates, with compelling growth opportunities across the Internet. Thus, we believe the stock's risk/reward profile is highly skewed toward equity ownership, as we believe current levels represent the stock's downside risk with a $27/sh upside potential, or approximately 15x F2000 EPS estimates, should yield 65% stock appreciation from current levels. Thus, at current levels, we strongly recommend purchase. UNQUOTE How would the market respond if they really come in at $.31? I guess it depends on how whether the PR said it beat or below. For the long term, does it matter? This stocksheet says institution ownership is 82.9% : stocksheet.com No wonder this thread is so quiet! RT