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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Graybill who wrote (43428)	3/3/1999 10:33:00 AM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

BULL'S-EYE: Micron Weakness Spells Golden Buying Opportunity Jono Steinberg (3/1/99) Shares of Micron Technology (NYSE: MU) have surged over 50% since we recommended the stock in November. But Micron's stock has fallen precipitously over the past week as investors have fled semiconductor companies and other computer-peripheral issues over concerns of slowing PC demand. A slower growth rate reported by Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) in its most recent quarter as well as some evidence of slowing motherboard sales in Taiwan have created tremendous uncertainty over secular PC demand. These events coupled with a seasonally weak period for semiconductor demand has put pressure on Micron stock. While spot market prices for 64 mega-bit DRAM chips have weakened recently, they have still risen sharply over the last six months. Simply put, the supply demand equation --of primary importance for any commodity product -- is beginning to favor suppliers. As capacity came off-line in Asia and demand strengthened pricing rose. Adding to the rally was a strengthening Japanese Yen. This phenomenon also contributed to a stronger pricing environment for DRAMs. During this time frame Micron was able to refine its manufacturing processes, becoming a much more efficient producer. When Micron reports its financial results for its quarter ended February 28, 1999 the company should break even. Street consensus estimates call for a loss of $0.08 per share. It is very encouraging that capacity for DRAMs remains tight and inventory levels are low. Capacity and inventory are key indicators of future pricing. While motherboard demand has been weaker over the last few weeks than it had been in December and January, I believe that it is more seasonal than cyclical. A slowdown in Dell's growth rate is not necessarily indicative of overall weakness in PC demand. It is more indicative of competition in a cut-throat industry. Micron has made tremendous strides in improving its manufacturing processes. In a commodity business, this is key to achieving profitability at the lowest pricing environment. DRAM prices are poised to trade in a higher trading range in 1999 than they did in 1998. The macro story for DRAMs is brighter now than it was during the last cyclical upturn in 1995. The key difference is that Micron can sell chips much more profitably now than in 1995. Bottom Line: While Micron shares may remain under pressure during this seasonally weak period for chip and PC demand, its shares are again poised to rise. Investors who missed out on the last huge run in Micron stock would be well served to take positions at current levels. The stock was recently trading for $57.81. The 52-week high is $80.56 iionline.com

To: John Graybill who wrote (43428)	3/3/1999 2:22:00 PM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

$SOX is making some decent progress today, INTC is up 4, TXN up 2 Whoops! Never mind!: Positive comments about leading chip maker Intel (INTC) put some spark back into the semiconductor giant's shares. BancBoston Robertson Stephens analyst Daniel Niles, who has a "strong buy" rating on Intel, said he thinks that the stock should bought aggressively at current levels. "We believe that Intel quarter to date is tracking to plan," Niles said in a research note. Intel's shares rose 2 3/16 to 111 15/16 in recent trading. Among other chip makers: shares of Texas Instruments (TXN) were up 2 1/2 to 89 after Niles reiterated a "strong buy" rating on the stock. cbs.marketwatch.com Looks like Danny Boy's just trying to get his last few clients out at yesterday's price. Ah, 55, we hardly knew ye...