Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Katherine Derbyshire who wrote (28788)	3/3/1999 12:57:00 PM
From: Sun Tzu	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>>Isn't it? Does any other investment do any better? If stocks deliver 0.1%, but everything else delivers -10%, then stocks look like a pretty darn good investment to me.<< No. Nothing does better, but then again nothing does worse either. It's all a matter of timing and time horizon. On the Art of Investing thread I've tried to get the message to people that the single most important factor in investing is your time horizon. The point of my whole article was that there are very strong forces at work to persuade you to hand over your money to them in stock market. The stock market is anything but a sure thing, even in the long run. So the prudent thing to do is to learn to be a good trader or at least a good strategist and know when to quit. If we return to median valuation levels based on any historical measure (P/E, P/S, P/CF, P/B, P/GDP, etc.) then we are looking at a 45%~65% drop in the market. When that happens (not if) then the market will have to double in real terms just to break even. And that will take a long time. Sun Tzu P.S. I like your posts.