To: John Graybill who wrote (43446 ) 3/3/1999 10:19:00 PM From: Chas Respond to of 53903
I am trying to review the data points I have heard over the past several days that keep telling me not to think too negatively on the outlook. -Micron end of qtr, I realize they had to clean out the warehouse, but I dont think they did too much damage to the spot or the OEM market and sold most of the product so earnings should be ok. -Luckily NEC and other Japanese are in retreat mode, LG trying to get going again only to be sold, so why the bother. -Now that RDRAM issues have finally come out PC133 is breathing strong life and Micron is in perfect position to immediately capture this front end demand in Q2. Micron is very fortunate here being so late on RDRAM, and should bode well for earnings as PC133 will command a premium over PC100. -First to start producing .18um and will give Mu a head start to stay ahead of the Asian companies. current yields are improving on .21um. -PC market being said to be soft, will pick up steam again in March whenever the Analysts decide, Gateway wasted no time in selecting AMD for K6-3 to capitalizing on the obvious. -Hyundai and LG if it ever happens, and I think now the government has stepped in once again to finalize it, will combine outputs of both companies and give Hyundai who was instrumental in voluntarily curtailing production last year, will work with Samsung to do this once again. They saw it work and DRAM rose from $6.50 to $10. I think this will be positive for Micron because major suppliers are trying to control the price and not let it freefall like from 96-98. We shall see. -The dumping charge Micron made on the Taiwanese is suppose to be announced in the April-May timeframe. I would expect a positive ruling in Micron's favor. This should be again, another chapter, but it cant help but be positive depending on the outcome. Good trading.