Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BillyG who wrote (21250)	3/4/1999 1:29:00 AM
From: FJB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

I meant to post these articles on Monday, but got side tracked. This article concerns the prospects for post-optical lithography becoming a reality any time soon. It's humorously titled, *How to waste millions of dollars needlessly* From now on, perhaps, chip makers and their equipment suppliers may not be so quick to write off optical lithography. semibiznews.com This article acknowledges what was already widely known. 248nm lithography will dominate through the 0.15µm technology node and will even be used at 0.13µ, pushing out 193nm lithography. Rather bullish for Cymer, since the company's competitors viewed the 193nm tool generation as a good opportunity to gain market share. This means Cymer will be able to sell their 6000 series($875,000) lasers for a longer period of time. semibiznews.com Some related notes from Lehman Brothers reports on the industry. ETEC ... * Management noted that JEOL, Etec's closest competitor, has an installed base of only 28 tools, compared with Etec's installed base of 221 tools. If JEOL's new 0.18 micron machine does not ship within the next six to nine months, this could create an opportunity for Etec to ship multiple MEBES 5000 tools into Japan. * Also, potential upside for fiscal 2000 could come from Japan, which currently suffers from a dearth of 0.18 micron mask making capacity. Look for Japanese capital spending budgets to be announced sometime in May 1999. ... LIMITED INSTALLED BASE OF ADVANCED GENERATION MASK-MAKING CAPABILITY Of the 326 total reticle writing machines installed at manufacturers, only 35 are designed for 0.25 micron production, and only 7 are designed for 0.18 micron production. As the pipeline of advanced generation chip designs grows, a serious capacity shortage may result. ... This is mixed news. It acknowledges the trend towards 0.18 and below, but it is also important that advanced mask making capacity is available to match the advanced DUV litho tools that will be shipping. Eventually, ETEC will see a large surge in orders. KLAC ... * KLA-Tencor highlighted its emphasis on helping chip manufacturers migrate to 0.18 micron technology, through management of production yields. At the outset, 0.18 micron yields may only be 20% to 50%. ... I view this news as primarily positive. The migration to the 0.18µm process generation will not result in a massive increase in ICs produced. This is very good for the overall semiconductor industry supply/demand situation. Book to Bill ... WE ARE ESTABLISHING ESTIMATES FOR FEBRUARY ORDERS AND SHIPMENTS. We expect the book-to-bill ratio to be 1.15 for the Front End, 1.12 for Test & Assembly, and 1.14 overall. Bookings have improved substantially since reaching an inflection point (up 99% from September trough to January). We think bookings will continue to improve, and estimate a 7% sequential improvement to $1,025 million in February. We estimate that industry shipments will increase 3% sequentially to $895 million in February. ... These expectations seem a bit lofty to me. We rebounded from some very depressed order levels, so I don't expect the Book to Bill to be this high. If the Book to Bill number were to reach this number, it could offer some relief in what it is turning out to be a pretty nasty correction for the sector. I hope someone found these articles and report excerpts of use. Bob The LB reports are available from this address. lehman.com