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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rudedog who wrote (51403)	3/3/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: Elwood P. Dowd	Respond to of 97611

Wednesday March 3, 7:43 pm Eastern Time U.S. CREDIT OUTLOOK - Mood bleak before key report By Ellen Freilich NEW YORK, March 4 (Reuters) - Caution ahead of Friday's monthly U.S. employment report will likely govern trading on Thursday, with buyers wary of the the market's tendency to give up occasional gains almost immediately, analysts said. On Friday, prices rose after a three-day selloff. But on Monday they collapsed. On Tuesday, the market made again made inroads into positive territory. But on Wednesday, again, it conceded all those gains -- and then some. The 30-year Treasury bond ended at 93-20/32, down 1-5/32, on Wednesday, yielding 5.70 pct, the highest since July 31. The market's inability to hold any gains ''certainly affects the psychology because we can't get any rally of consequence,'' said Patrick Retzer, director of fixed income at Milwaukee, Wisc.-based Heartland Funds. ''It is kind of discouraging as a bond manager watching the bond drop another point every other day,'' said David Brownlee, senior vice president of Sentinal Advisors Company, manager of the Sentinel Funds and other investment portfolios. Bond prices probably already allow for ''a fair amount of bad news on the (February) payroll report,'' he said. Brownlee said the next 30 days would be tough for the market but he said he would be looking to extend duration near the beginning of April. ''We don't think the Fed will tighten,'' he said. But Brownlee said while the higher yields might not be sustainable in the intermediate-term, the bond yield could hit six percent in a short-term framework. ''It's hard to fight the tape,'' he said. ''I think you can hit 6 percent.'' Analysts said the market could play a wait-and-see game on Thursday. But bonds could chalk up some gains on Friday if the Labor Department's payroll report turns out not to be as strong as some fear. A strong payroll report is rapidly getting factored into the market, Retzer said. ''Sentiment is very negative and people are battening down the hatches and expecting the worst, so if Friday's number is not a complete debacle, we could see a rally,'' he said. Retzer said the fundamental case is still very compelling. The dollar has been strong across the board, but especially against the yen. One dynamic that could work in the bond market's favor is the stock market's loss of leadership, Retzer said. ''The high-flyer technology stocks like Cisco (Nasdaq:CSCO - news), Dell (Nasdaq:DELL - news) and Compaq Computer (NYSE:CPQ - news) are all down 20 to 30 percent or more,'' he noted. Retzer said if the market can hurdle the Friday employment report, it will day by day move into a more favorable period seasonally. ''Then we should be in better shape here,'' he said. On Thursday, the market will get new data on weekly jobless claims and January factory orders. In a Reuters poll, economists estimated, on average, that new claims for state unemployment insurance totaled 299,000 in the week ended February 27, up from 293,000 a week earlier. That level of claims would be consistent with a strong labor market, economists said. The economists also estimated that factory orders rose 2.1 percent in January after rising 2.3 percent in December. Economists estimated, on average, that the U.S. Labor Department's monthly employment report on Friday would show that payrolls grew by 245,000 new jobs in February while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3 percent. Dealers indicated that Federal funds would open at 4-3/4 percent on Thursday.

To: rudedog who wrote (51403)	3/3/1999 9:33:00 PM
From: Bretsky	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 97611

Thanks for your input. This is kind of a weird request I have, but I've always believed that investors tend to know their own stocks better than others and the trends they trade in. Just wondering how you view some of the stocks you currently hold since I'm investigating several of them for future long term holdings. Especially wondering about MSFT, INTC, LU, and even CPQ at current levels. Personally, I would still be comfortable recommending most people buy the stocks I hold in my profile. I would probably tell people to avoid CPQ now (don't know if it's a sell although I'm considering it because it's greatly underperformed everything else I own) , and hold EMC,DELL, and PFE because there is a risk that those are overvalued. Any viewpoints are appreciated, and best of luck making $$$$ Brett