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Gold/Mining/Energy : WillP Speaks on Winspear -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Tomato who wrote (88)3/4/1999 7:13:00 PM
From: Tomato  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 177
 
Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-04 15:18:24
Subject: Doctor:

Investors come in all shapes and sizes...and they come with a myriad of strategies and
risk tolerances. This is indeed fortunate.

You as a question. The next verifiable news from Winspear will probably be drill results
from the spring program. I would expect to see kimberlite intersections (as a bull), or lack
thereof (as a bear). Depending on location, there might be some minor pressure on the
share price in either direction from that data. Time frame? Could be from later this
evening to the next month. I'm not sure the market would understand the implications of
drill data, however.

It's possible that (assuming there are intersections to report) that caustic fusion results
may be released from these intersections within two to three months. I'm absolutely sure
the market will not understand the implications of CF results. I've seen way too many
such results released...and the market moves. Almost invariably...the wrong way.

Failing those...the major news of course will be the results from the two or three bulk
samples. The jury is still out on when to expect these...any time from May to September.
I lean more to early June for grade, and possibly late June or early July for valuation.
That's assuming they don't wait to release it all at once. In that case...add about 45 days.

Beyond that...I suppose there could always be more analyst reports, a la DB for
instance. But so what? All that could be said...has been said. Surely these reports will no
longer move WSP in any direction.

In the interim...I concur that there is little 'money to be made here'. Short of a market
catastrophe...WSP has found a reasonable trading range around $3.

The question is...what bad news would drive it to $1.50? What good news would drive it
to $6? (There's your doubles.) Nothing until the bulk sample results are released, I think.
A $140 per tonne value might send it to $1.50. A confirming $340 per tonne value might
send it to $6.

I'll leave your RRSP and taxation rant alone. Suffice it to say I'm not a big fan of RRSPs
or the Canadian tax system either. :-)

Regards,

WillP

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Reply

Author: WillP -- Date:1999-03-04 15:32:22
Subject: Ramblin' Corry:

Quite the ramble.

I guess it all depends on where and how you became a shareholder, and what your
overall attitude as an investor is.

I'm not sure what my average cost to play is. It's certainly less than $1.62...but
probably around $1.00. That October stretch you refer to...which was actually
September as I recall, saw my last purchases.

It's play money to me...and I'll be around for the bulk sample results for sure.

I think the risk vs. reward expectations for someone who got in at your level is
considerably different than someone getting in today. You can absorb some fairly
disappointing news and still walk away with a 10% annual profit. The news will
have to be acceptably good for someone buying today.

It's all relative. And it's not.

And yes...there's the thrill of the chase. That's a factor that one must consider as
well. Why do speculators speculate? Why do daytraders daytrade? Why do
prospectors prospect? Some are driven by the thrill of a profit, others are driven by
profiting from success.

Why is there air? :-)

Remember...it takes all kinds to make the world run. If everyone did the same
thing...it would be damned hard to be a contrarian. :-)

Regards,

WillP