To: Copeland who wrote (9589 ) 3/4/1999 3:50:00 AM From: AlienTech Respond to of 43080
Well I thought most of the wekness now were due to the brazil devaluation and not dropping number of boxes sold, Since INTC is saying they are doign great and guided estimates higher and AMD says they sold more chips than even, the number of units have to go somewhere. I think the humengous runup were just due to short covering. If people arent willing to sell then you have to cover nd push the price up even higher. But just saying the 20 companies are over valued does not mean the rest of the 480 companies in the S&P 500 are. Oh I am not saying if people panic the rest of them wont get slaughtered either but I am amazed that while a lot of companies I watch has gone up 50% from the OCT lows, companies like DELL, INTC, MSFT, LU, NOKA etc have more than doubled. You would think that with a correction, the money WOULD rotate into better valued companies. The most recent comments I been hearing is the margins of these companies. All of them have 50% margins which is great and you take margin times revenues to get the prices. So what do you buy? If you are playing the market obviously you buy value, but value companies aint doing too good, In fact value companies are getting slaughtered. Since value companies right now are trading at what they were an year or so ago while the shifty 20 and very large caps are up like 100-200% still. Since in the past these nifties have bounced back to more than double and the value companies barely crawled otu again, I think in another crash the same would occur. Something has to change, but I am not sure what. But getting brains would certainly help. Since CPQ was still flying higher and higher when people were panicking about brazil. Would not have been that hard to think oh 3rd largest trading partner, big business.. if their currency goes down in half, revenues also goes down in half. And fund managers, heh! I cant belive so many ignorant and stupid people managing other people's money. but every one needs a job I suppose.